S&P Global’s Daniel Yergin calls a Strait of Hormuz crisis the largest energy disruption ever. Crude Oil all time high by April 30 sits at 1.1% YES, down from 2% a day ago.

Yergin’s warning feeds into concerns about the US-Iran conflict’s impact on oil supply. The April 30 market sits at 1.1% YES, meaning traders are deeply skeptical that prices will exceed $120/barrel in 6 days. The largest recent move was only a 1-point shift.

The market is thinly traded: actual USDC volume at just $2,513 against a $100,828 face value. It takes only $695 to move the price 5 points, making the contract vulnerable to a single large trade. The biggest move in the past day was a 1-point spike at 5:31 AM.

Traders are weighing potential OPEC+ production cuts against diversified supply chains and IEA reserves. At 1.1¢, a YES share offers a theoretical 90.91x return if prices break records by April 30. But the odds reflect a consensus that no sufficient catalyst will arrive in the remaining days.

Watch for OPEC+ announcements or US decisions on strategic petroleum reserve releases. Changes in Iranian or US military posture in the Strait could also move the contract.

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