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A youth organization supporting Israelis in the military has endorsed Naftali Bennett’s candidacy for prime minister, joining his “Bennett 2026” party. In the Next Prime Minister of Israel market, Netanyahu’s odds are expected to decrease by 15%.
Market reaction
Bennett’s endorsement could shift trading in the Next Prime Minister of Israel market. Bennett has been trailing Netanyahu among young voters, and this backing may narrow that gap. The October 2026 sub-markets show Netanyahu’s chances already under pressure.
The Next Leader Out of Power market faces related movement. Increased opposition to Netanyahu could push his chances of being out of power before 2027 up by 10%, though without a coalition shift this remains speculative.
Why it matters
The youth endorsement changes the election narrative around Bennett. His focus on security contrasts with Netanyahu’s current problems: the Gaza conflict and internal divisions over judicial reforms. A YES share on Netanyahu being out before 2027 could be a strategic position given these pressures.
What to watch
Polling changes showing Bennett gaining among young voters, and any coalition announcements from opposition parties. These are the clearest indicators of where the market moves next.
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