Iran warns US naval blockade threatens ceasefire stability

Iran’s military has warned the US that its naval blockade could disrupt the fragile ceasefire. The odds for Trump lifting the blockade by May 31 are at 83.5% YES, up from 79% yesterday.

The term structure shows traders expect a resolution closer to the May 31 deadline, not sooner. The April 15 market sits at 3.1% YES, while April 17 is at 11.5% YES. The jump to 25% YES for April 19 suggests traders expect some catalyst in that window.

The US-Iran ceasefire market for April 21 is at 12.5% YES. Iran’s military warning could push this probability higher by adding tension to negotiations. The ceasefire ending by April 15 is nearly priced out at 0.8% YES.

This market is thin. Volume across all related markets in the past 24 hours is $30,880 in USDC. It takes $1,902 to move the May 31 odds by 5 points, which is moderate liquidity. A single large order could swing the less liquid April markets by several points.

Iran’s warning works against immediate de-escalation. A YES share at 11.5¢ for the April 17 market pays $1 if Trump announces the blockade’s end, a 8.7x return. That’s a contrarian bet against current military posturing.

Watch for concrete statements from CENTCOM or changes in Trump’s rhetoric on social media. A diplomatic breakthrough or an increase in military actions could move these markets fast.

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