Trump predicts oil price drop, cites China’s silence on Hormuz blockade

Trump forecasts a drop in oil prices and points to China’s lack of response to the Hormuz blockade. The odds of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting by April 15 are at 1.4% YES.

Trump’s comments have traders reassessing the likelihood of a blockade lift. The May 31 market is at 83.5%, up from 79% yesterday. The April 17 market is at 11.5%. China’s silence maps directly onto the low near-term odds and the wider gap between the April and May contracts.

USDC traded across these markets totals $30,562, with a combined face value of $214,943. The order book is thin in places: as little as $41 can move odds 5 points in the April 19 market, which makes these shorter-dated contracts vulnerable to even modest trades.

Trump’s statement reads more as a description of diplomatic stalemate than a signal of imminent action. The term structure tells the same story: traders see little chance of a near-term resolution but are pricing in a probable lift by late May. A YES share on the May 31 contract at 84¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 1.19x return. That bet requires a diplomatic breakthrough within 46 days.

The triggers to watch: China entering talks or Pakistan mediating between the US and Iran. Either could compress the spread between near-term and May contracts quickly.

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