Iran to bypass US blockade with alternative ports at Strait of Hormuz

Iran plans to use alternative ports to sidestep the US blockade at the Strait of Hormuz. The odds of Trump lifting the blockade by May 31 sit at 84% YES, up from 79% yesterday.

Market reaction

The move to alternative ports suggests Iran is not complying with US conditions for lifting the blockade. The April 19 market sits at 25% YES, while April 17 is at 12%. The April 15 market is effectively dead at 3% YES.

Why it matters

The term structure shows a large jump from April 19 to May 31, meaning traders expect a catalyst in late April or May. Iran rerouting exports through alternative ports is a workaround, not a concession, which may push out expectations for a quick resolution.

Trading volume at $30,880 in USDC over the last 24 hours. Moving the market 5 percentage points requires $1,902, so a single large trade can shift prices. The largest single move was a 4-point spike early this morning.

What to watch

Iran is trying to maintain oil exports and economic stability by routing around the blockade rather than negotiating its end. At 84¢ for a YES share, the market prices in a high probability of resolution by May 31. A contrarian bet carries real risk unless new diplomatic efforts emerge.

Watch for announcements from Tehran on port logistics and any US Navy responses. Either could move these markets quickly.

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