$6.6T bank deposits may shift to stablecoins, impacting Bitcoin demand

A potential $6.6 trillion outflow from bank deposits to stablecoin rewards is circulating in crypto markets. Bitcoin’s price target of $100,000 by December 2026 trades at 36% YES on Polymarket.

The stablecoin deposit thesis has moved Bitcoin and Ethereum markets. If stablecoins attract traditional bank deposits, Bitcoin could see increased demand as a gateway asset, and the $100,000 by end-of-2026 contract reflects that bet. Bitcoin above $68,000 on April 13 is at 95% YES. Ethereum above $1,800 on April 13 is at 99.8% YES.

The Bitcoin April 13 market has $81,206 in daily USDC volume, and it would take $124,620 to move the price five points, which points to real depth. The largest 24-hour move was a two-point drop, so traders are cautious but not panicking. Ethereum’s April 13 market is thinner: $11,492 in daily USDC volume and only $7,967 needed for a five-point move.

Capital flowing from bank deposits into stablecoins would create a direct on-ramp to broader crypto buying. That’s the core bet behind the $100,000 Bitcoin contract. A YES share at 36¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $100,000 by 2026, a 2.78x return. That payout prices in substantial doubt about sustained institutional and retail adoption actually materializing.

Watch for White House regulatory updates and any announcements from Coinbase or Binance on stablecoin products. Either could shift sentiment quickly on these contracts.

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