Iran-US back-channel diplomacy involves Pakistan, Turkey mediation

Back-channel diplomacy is underway for an Iran-US deal, with Pakistan and Turkey among the countries involved. The market for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanctions relief by April 30 sits at 0% YES, unchanged.

The April 15 ceasefire market is at 100% YES, and the April 30 ceasefire market also sits at 100% YES, with no new trades recorded.

The market for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30 has dropped to 9.2% YES, even with mediator involvement. The June 30 market at 24% YES suggests traders expect limited progress at best.

Combined 24-hour USDC volume on the uranium market is at $32,277. The market has liquidity but remains sensitive to large trades. The biggest move was a 2-point drop at 3:22 AM.

At 9.2¢, a YES share in the uranium surrender market pays $1 if it resolves, a 10.9x return. That payout requires a significant breakthrough before April 30.

Watch for statements from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, and any shifts in rhetoric from CENTCOM or Iranian leadership. These are the most likely catalysts for market movement.

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