Iran calls Trump for deal, no fighting reported

Iran called Trump to discuss a deal this morning, and no fighting is currently reported. The odds of a US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 are at 100% YES.

Market reaction

The ceasefire market holds at 100% YES, pricing in full confidence in de-escalation. The market on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands in April still needs a price update, suggesting traders want more detail before committing. The military action market by April 30 sits at 4% YES, with little expectation of further military conflict.

Trade volume is at $0 across these markets, with no significant moves reported. Participants appear to be waiting for concrete developments before placing substantial bets.

Why it matters

Iran’s direct contact with Trump is a shift toward diplomacy, but without specific commitments, it changes little on its own. At 4¢, a YES share in the military action market pays $1 if action occurs by April 30, a 25x return. For that bet to make sense, you’d need to believe a sudden escalation is imminent, which current conditions don’t support.

What to watch

Official statements from Trump or Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi. Any confirmed diplomatic progress or breakdown could move these markets sharply.

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