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Iran’s Parliament Speaker announced that 7 million Iranians are prepared to fight the US and Israel. The odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.
This statement is part of Iran’s reaction to Operation Epic Fury, the ongoing US-Israel campaign. Ceasefire odds for April 7 fell 2 points, indicating a deepening conflict. April 15 and April 30 markets also dropped, now at 18% and 38% YES, respectively. Traders see little chance for immediate diplomacy, with April 30 odds jumping 20 points over April 15.
Trading volume is at $1.4M in USDC across these markets. The April 7 market is the least liquid, requiring just $15K to shift odds by 5 points, making it sensitive to large trades. The largest recent move was a 4-point spike for April 30, showing its reaction to perceived catalysts.
With Iran’s escalating rhetoric and potential ground invasion, ceasefire odds are slipping. At 8¢, a YES share for an April 7 ceasefire pays $1 if resolved, suggesting traders expect no de-escalation soon. A shift would need active diplomacy or a significant de-escalation, neither of which seems likely.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM or intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Any diplomatic breakthrough or troop movement will impact these markets.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 8.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 18.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 38.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 55.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 62.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 73.5% YES
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