Netanyahu agrees to Iran ceasefire after Trump call

Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has agreed to a ceasefire with Iran following a call from President Trump. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market now sits at 100% YES, up from 18% a week ago.

The ceasefire, brokered by Trump, has pushed all related sub-markets to 100% ahead of a formal announcement. The April 30 market jumped from 34% a week ago to 100% YES, with the same pattern across later dates. Traders are pricing in complete confidence that the ceasefire holds through at least the end of the year.

24-hour volume shows a face value of $4.2 million, with $3.2 million in actual USDC traded. The term structure is flat across the timeline, with no point spread between dates, meaning traders expect no additional escalation. A week ago, odds varied more widely across the different expiry dates.

Lebanon is the loose thread. Netanyahu excluded Hezbollah operations from the deal, which looks more like a tactical pause than broad de-escalation. If the situation in Lebanon escalates, future ceasefire market odds on longer-dated contracts could move.

With YES shares at 100¢, there is no payout for betting against the ceasefire by April 15. Any contrarian position would need to target longer-dated contracts and would depend on the Hezbollah situation deteriorating. Watch for Netanyahu’s next moves in Lebanon and any shifts in operational language from Hegseth or CENTCOM, which could signal volatility on those later dates.

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