November is a miserable month. Temperatures sink, nights draw in, everywhere looks grim and depressing as leaves turn brown and fall to the ground.
But, unlike what’s outside the window, crypto markets are looking green and perky.
Cryptocurrencies have been on the rise since the start of November. The total value of the cryptocurrency sector was around $203bn, at the beginning of the month. Excluding a $6bn spike last Wednesday, prices have been on a gradual upswing during the first week; this has slowly started to accelerate.
The market has increased by approximately $17bn in the past seven days, leading to its current valuation at just under $220bn at the time of writing. This represents an 8% rise in the total value of cryptocurrencies.
The sector’s high expectations at the beginning of the year were unrealistic. Participants were bound to be let down and so they were when nearly $400bn was wiped off in the latter part of January. In the first two quarters, investors still held out hopes for a returning bull market. There were two promising signs, but ultimately these only led to further market corrections.
The last notable bull run occurred towards the end of July. The enthusiasm surrounding Bitcoin ETFs sent prices on an upward trend, but the SEC’s decision to delay its ruling caused prices to sink to new depths. The market had barely stabilized when Goldman Sachs announced it was shelving its BTC trading desk for the foreseeable future. Panicky investors instigated a sell-off which took crypto markets beneath the $200bn line for a short time.
But what’s behind the crypto markets rise?
Experienced traders have explained to Crypto Briefing that the price surge in the past seven days indicates that optimism is returning to the sector. One source familiar with the matter explained that over the past two months, the market has come to see stable prices amongst the top-ten coins as a key guide rail for the health of the sector.
Namely, Bitcoin should hover at around the $6,500 mark and Ether (ETH) at the $200 mark. These are the floor prices, and any moves upwards are bound to be seen as bullish signs, that will likely gain momentum.
Senior analyst at eToro, Mati Greenspan, pointed out to Crypto Briefing that this stable price helped alleviate fears in the market that prices would sink any lower.
“Bitcoin’s smooth price action over the last few weeks is a clear testament that this market is maturing and it has gone a long way to improving investor sentiment due to the increased perception that it holds a stable value,” Greenspan said. “Thus, similar to what we’ve seen in the past for this asset, the cycle continues. At this point, a strong breakout to the upside could easily signal the bottom of the bear market and the beginning of the next bull run.”
So is this the start of a bull run?
Many analysts and observers – including this writer – have been burnt in the past by preemptively calling a bull run which turned out to be nothing much than a damp squib. The SEC has only to bare its fangs to send the markets back down to the depths.
This isn’t a prediction. For investors and traders, the key takeaway from this week’s trend is that crypto has established some sort of a floor price. From this base level, any upwards move can be interpreted as a bull sign.
There is, of course, nothing stopping crypto from moving back to $200bn, or even below that. But it acts as a standard for traders to assess the health and direction of the market.
“Is crypto gonna moon?” used to be the million-dollar question. “How are crypto markets looking today?” might be the $200bn question.
The author is invested in BTC and ETH, which are mentioned in this article.