Poll: Two-thirds of Israelis oppose ceasefire with Iran amid truce tensions

A new poll finds nearly two-thirds of Israelis oppose a ceasefire with Iran, complicating the fragile truce. The US-Iran ceasefire market sits at 100.0% YES for a ceasefire by April 15, despite the collapse of talks in Islamabad and broad Israeli public opposition.

Market reaction

The ceasefire market holds at 100.0% YES with 3 days to go. Traders aren’t betting on a breakdown yet, even as Netanyahu warns of resumed actions. The Israel military action market tells a different story: 24% YES for action by April 14, up from 10% yesterday. A notable 9-point drop at 1:55 PM reflected volatile sentiment. The April 21 market at 46% YES shows a 22-point jump, suggesting traders expect a catalyst in the next week.

Why it matters

This polling data exposes the gap between headline ceasefire odds and the political reality in Israel. $58,601 in actual USDC has traded across these markets. The April 14 market’s $1,205 order book depth means a moderate push can swing prices significantly, making it highly sensitive to news. The largest movement was a 10-point spike in the April 21 sub-market, pointing to major bets on imminent action.

What to watch

A YES bet on Israeli military action by April 14 is priced at 24¢, offering a 4.17x return. For that to pay off, you’d need to believe in a sharp escalation within 2 days. Watch Netanyahu’s statements and any IDF announcements. If rhetoric from Jerusalem sharpens or new military actions are confirmed, expect market volatility. Any unexpected diplomatic activity from Oman or Qatar could also move prices.

API access

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.