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✓ 25h Trump plans to fire FBI Director Kash Patel amid negative media coverage
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
✓ 25h Trump plans to fire FBI Director Kash Patel amid negative media coverage
▲ Kash patel out by date
24% (was 9%, ▲15¢ in 5h)
NO ▲5¢
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
1 article
· 3h ago
54%
▼5¢
⚡ Iran diplomatic meetings 57% FLAT
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 57% FLAT
✓ 53h Iran refuses talks with Pakistan amid US blockade standoff
YES ▲3¢
US-Iran ceasefire
1 article
· 5h ago
14%
▲3¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 13% FLAT
5h Iran seeks diplomacy with US via third-party talks in Pakistan, Oman
NO ▲1¢
Fed decisions from january to april
1 article
· 4h ago
39%
▼1¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts in 2026 39% FLAT
4h Consumer pessimism on job security doubles, Fed rate cut speculation rises
YES ▲1¢
Trump Iran demands (april)
3 articles
· 4h ago
2%
▲1¢
4h Iran’s low-pressure oil fields risk permanent loss amid supply strain
4h US open to Iran uranium enrichment in potential nuclear deal shift
5h US may allow Iran uranium enrichment, impacting Trump negotiation dynamics
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran ceasefire end
1 article
· 4h ago
1%
▼1¢
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran 2% FLAT
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 2% FLAT
4h Trump comments cast doubt on Iran ceasefire continuation
Likely NO
What price will Bitcoin hit in april
2 articles
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 5% FLAT
6m Bitcoin sharks accumulate 37,920 BTC as Middle East tensions ease
3h Bitcoin long-term holders stop panic selling, market stabilizes
Likely NO
Iran leadership status
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 4% FLAT
⚡ Iranian regime fall 8% FLAT
17m Iran ramps up executions as regime maintains control amid protests
4h Trump cancels Iran talks, citing regime infighting and confusion
Likely NO
US-Iran peace deal
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 1% FLAT
34m Trump halts US-Iran peace talks, April 30 deal market plummets
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 4% FLAT
38m Iran proposes talks framework with US, highlights deep trust issues
5h Iran signals reduced interest in US talks after failed Pakistan negotiations
Likely NO
Russia's entry into dovha balka
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action against countries 100% FLAT
42m Iran-linked hackers expose Israeli special ops officers’ identities
Likely NO
Crypto hack predictions for 2023
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on april 26 0% FLAT
46m Balancer attacker converts $48.7M ETH to 617 BTC, retains 1k ETH
4h Lazarus Group linked to $292M DeFi hack, $13B TVL outflows ensue
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
2 articles
Developing
14%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 54% FLAT
52m Iran intensifies efforts to keep Strait of Hormuz shut amid US blockade
✓ 44h US Navy intercepts sanctioned vessel M/V Sevan in Arabian Sea
Likely NO
Trump's end of military operations against Iran
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
✓ 2554m Trump evacuated from White House dinner amid US-Iran tensions
Likely NO
Netanyahu's tenure
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
1h Israel strikes in Gaza increase pressure on Netanyahu amid political turmoil
Likely NO
US-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian demands Trump agreement 6% FLAT
✓ 31h Iran offers new negotiation proposal after US trip cancellation
✓ 34h Trump urges journalist to leave Pakistan as Iran peace talks stall
Likely NO
Putin's presidency status
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
2h Putin approval hits wartime low, market sees no immediate threat to power
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on april 16, 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ S&P 500 movement on april 24 100% FLAT
2h Hedge funds dump tech stocks at fastest pace in two years amid market jitters
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for 2026
2 articles
· 2h ago
5%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Bitcoin reclaims $73,700 support, eyes $96,000 mean reversion target
3h US Admiral Paparo endorses Bitcoin for national security strategy
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
✓ 32h IDF strikes Al-Khaiam amid ongoing clashes with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon
Likely NO
WTI crude oil price in april 2026
3 articles
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 2% FLAT
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 1% FLAT
✓ 32h Baker Hughes warns Strait of Hormuz could remain closed through 2026
2h Iran tensions and oil supply issues fail to boost WTI crude price outlook
✓ 25h Empty oil tankers divert to US amid Middle East supply disruptions
Likely NO
Ethereum price in 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
2h Kelp DAO exploit leaves AAVE with $196M bad debt, Ethereum market steady
Likely NO
Crude oil all time high by april 30
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price hit in april 1% FLAT
2h Iran crisis leaves crude oil markets unmoved despite Strait of Hormuz tensions
Likely NO
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
3 articles
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting 100% FLAT
2h Israel strikes Hezbollah targets, straining fragile ceasefire in Lebanon
✓ 23h Israel urges US to pressure Lebanon over Hezbollah to save ceasefire
✓ 34h Israeli airstrikes hit Hezbollah positions in Lebanon amid ceasefire doubts
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO
2 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US NATO withdrawal 0% FLAT
2h Leaked Pentagon memo suggests punitive measures against NATO allies escalate tensions
4h Trump’s frustration with Europe reignites US withdrawal from NATO debate
Likely NO
Military action against Iran
1 article
· 3h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Countries conducting military action against Iran by april 30 1% FLAT
3h US embassy warns of arsons targeting UK Jewish sites linked to Iran group
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting dates
2 articles
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting location 11% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 4% FLAT
✓ 23h Iran rules out US meetings in Pakistan or Oman, dampening diplomatic hopes
5h US-Iran diplomatic meeting possible in coming days: WSJ
Likely NO
Third best AI model by april 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
97%
▼0¢
3h Anthropic’s Mythos AI model sparks crypto security concerns
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting location 11% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 11% FLAT
✓ 23h Iran pledges trust-building in Oman visit amid nuclear deal uncertainty
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit april
1 article
· 3h ago
1%
▼0¢
3h US naval forces intercept sanctioned vessel in Arabian Sea, enforcing blockade
Likely NO
Crude oil predictions for june
1 article
· 4h ago
8%
▼0¢
4h Iran conflict drives oil prices, Latin America responds with subsidies, caps
Likely NO
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
· 4h ago
87%
▼0¢
✓ 24h DOJ ends Powell probe, clearing path for Warsh’s Fed Chair confirmation
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
2 articles
· 5h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action by april 30 100% FLAT
5h Unverified report: Iranian F-5 bombed US base in Kuwait, bypassing defenses
✓ 35h Iran warns US against renewed aggression amid conflict fears
Likely NO
Iran military action by april 30
1 article
· 5h ago
7%
▼0¢
✓ 25h Iran delegation returns to Tehran for consultations amid frozen market