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2h Keir Starmer vows to lead Labour despite Mandelson scandal pressure
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
2h Keir Starmer vows to lead Labour despite Mandelson scandal pressure
▼ Starmer out timing predictions
41% (was 43%, ▼2¢ in 2h)
⚡ Starmer out prediction markets: 42% FLAT
NO ▲2¢
Starmer out timing predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
41%
▼2¢
⚡ Starmer out prediction markets 42% FLAT
2h 
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran peace deal
1 article
Developing
3%
▲1¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
1h Iran’s Qalibaf claims US out of oil options, peace deal odds plummet
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
2 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 2% FLAT
⚡ Iranian demands Trump agreement 4% FLAT
2h US cancels envoy trips as Iran peace deal market plummets
4h Iran appoints hardliner Jalili as lead negotiator in US talks
NO ▲1¢
Diplomatic meetings with Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting 100% FLAT
2h Iran proposes new formula to revive talks with US
NO ▲1¢
Crude oil price predictions for june 2023
2 articles
· 3h ago
0%
▼1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 63h Iran-US peace talks collapse, crude oil market remains steady
✓ 23h US oil prices surge past $96 as US-Iran peace talks collapse
NO ▲1¢
Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼1¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 4% FLAT
4h Trump claims division in Iran’s leadership, markets await decisive action
Likely NO
Bitcoin all time high by date
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
2h Bitcoin jumps $1K on Binance amid US-Iran conflict tensions
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
1 article
· 2h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 1% FLAT
✓ 22h China-backed ceasefire stabilizes Iran amid regime change speculation
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in april 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
✓ 42h Iran says Strait of Hormuz will not return to previous state amid US distrust
Likely NO
Trump's agreement to Iranian demands in april
1 article
· 2h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
✓ 32h Trump warns Iran of potential oil shut-ins within three days
Likely NO
Next prime minister of Israel
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu's departure 6% FLAT
2h Two-thirds of Israelis dissatisfied with Netanyahu’s leadership, survey shows
Likely NO
Republican presidential nominee 2028
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 32h Third assassination attempt on Trump during White House Correspondents’ Dinner
Likely NO
Crude oil predictions for june
1 article
· 3h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 23h Trump cancels Iran talks trip, raising Strait of Hormuz disruption fears
Likely NO
Trump's public insults
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump public insults by april 2026 100% FLAT
3h Tucker Carlson apologizes for backing Trump amid Iran conflict
Likely NO
Peru presidential election 2026 candidates
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼0¢
3h Roberto Sánchez leads Peru election by 24,000 votes with 95.8% counted
Likely NO
WTI crude oil predictions for april 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
✓ 23h Iran exports 4.6M barrels of oil, bypassing US sanctions efforts
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 2026 4% FLAT
3h Russia open to US talks on Ukraine settlement, no new concessions
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap in april 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by june 92% FLAT
3h Hedge funds exit US tech stocks, raising questions on Nvidia’s market cap lead
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin all time high by date 3% FLAT
4h Institutional control of Bitcoin supply rises from 8% in 2024
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on april 24
1 article
Developing
0%
1m China fixes yuan at strongest level since March, signals economic strength
Likely NO
Crypto hack predictions for 2023
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
9m Lazarus Group exploits ThorChain for $292M rsETH laundering operation
Likely NO
Gulf state military action against Iran
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ US escorts commercial ship through hormuz 2% FLAT
13m US Navy deploys three aircraft carriers to Middle East amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on april 16, 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
16m Trump to hold Situation Room meeting on Iran amid Bitcoin price concerns
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
2 articles
Developing
17%
▼0¢
⚡ Ships transit the strait of hormuz by april 1% FLAT
✓ 417m Iran proposes plan to reopen Strait of Hormuz, ending naval blockade
49m US Navy blockade turns back 38 ships from Iranian ports
Likely NO
Next to leave Trump cabinet
2 articles
Developing
0%
▼0¢
20m Assassination attempt at dinner raises Trump Cabinet security concerns
✓ 24h Armed suspect stopped at White House Correspondents’ Dinner targeting Trump officials
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions in april
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 523m Bitcoin hits $79,000 amid US-Iran ceasefire, bullish sentiment grows
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 0% FLAT
27m Hormuz crisis prompts $24B Iraq trade corridor proposal amid Gulf disruption
Likely NO
Bank of japan decision in april 2026
3 articles
Developing
0%
▼0¢
40m Japan secures oil supply through 2027 amid Middle East tensions
✓ 21h Bank of Japan likely to hold rates steady amid yen depreciation concerns
3h Iran accuses US of ceasefire breach amid Middle East tensions
Likely NO
Who will Trump publicly insult by april 30?
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's public insults 100% FLAT
42m Trump criticizes Norah O’Donnell on “60 Minutes” amid prediction market buzz
Likely NO
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
46m Hezbollah targets Israeli troops with drone, missile attack amid ceasefire doubts
1h Netanyahu cancels Meron celebration amid renewed fire from Lebanon
Likely NO
Crude oil all time high by april 30
4 articles
Developing
1%
▼0¢
✓ 253m Iran bypasses US blockade, maintains oil exports amid market stability
✓ 255m Oil surpasses $107 as US-Iran talks stall, Strait of Hormuz remains closed
1h US holds firm on Iran, Russia oil waivers; traders see low supply shock risk
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on april 24
1 article
Developing
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap in april 2026 100% FLAT
1h S&P 500 companies cut 400,000 jobs in 2025, first decline since 2016
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal
1 article
Developing
75%
▼0¢
1h US naval blockade turns back 38 ships from Iranian ports, tensions persist
Likely NO
Trump's end of military operations against Iran
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
1h Iran war timeline uncertain as traders await Trump’s decision
Likely NO
Fed chair confirmation predictions
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 2% FLAT
1h Senator Tillis backs Warsh for Fed Chair as May 15 confirmation odds rise
Likely NO
Trump visit China
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
1h China expands economic pressure tactics amid Trump visit uncertainty
Likely NO
What price will Bitcoin hit in april
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Crypto hack predictions for 2023 100% FLAT
1h Crypto hacks in April surpass $623M with 4 days remaining
4h Bitcoin nears $79K liquidity zone, $1.5B short squeeze potential at $81K
Likely NO
AI model rankings by end of april
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h OpenAI launches GPT-5.5, Polymarket contract certainty
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting 100% FLAT
1h Israel tightens security in north amid rising Hezbollah tensions