Oil surpasses $107 as US-Iran talks stall, Strait of Hormuz remains closed

Oil prices have climbed above $107 a barrel with the Strait of Hormuz still closed due to stalled US-Iran peace talks. The probability of crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1% YES on Polymarket.

## Market reaction

The odds for crude oil reaching an all-time high by April 30 dropped from 2% to 1% over the past 24 hours. The market for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April moved the same direction, priced at 0.4% YES, down from 1% a day ago.

These low odds show traders are skeptical about a rapid price escalation even with the ongoing supply disruption. The market appears to expect a resolution, or at least partial de-escalation, before the end of April.

## Why it matters

Combined 24-hour volume for the crude oil markets was $100,828 in face value, with actual USDC trading at $2,513. These are thin market conditions: it takes just $695 to move the price by five percentage points. The WTI Crude Oil markets are similarly thin, with $54,256 in face value and $506 in actual USDC traded, requiring $1,632 to shift the price meaningfully. Small trades can cause outsized price swings here, but current sentiment remains bearish.

The Strait of Hormuz closure is a major supply disruption, yet markets are pricing in the possibility of a diplomatic resolution or strategic interventions like increased OPEC+ production or strategic reserve releases. At a price of 1¢, a YES share on crude oil reaching an all-time high would pay $1, a 100x return, but traders clearly view the likelihood as minimal.

## What to watch

Watch for diplomatic signals from the US or Iran, any OPEC+ production announcements, and potential strategic reserve releases. Any of these could shift the current pricing quickly given how thin these order books are.

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