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✓ 37h USS Rafael Peralta reinforces US blockade on Iranian ports in Hormuz Strait
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
✓ 37h USS Rafael Peralta reinforces US blockade on Iranian ports in Hormuz Strait
▼ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
51% (was 58%, ▼7¢ in 7h)
YES ▲6¢
Iran successfully targets ships by april 30
1 article
· 7h ago
94%
▲6¢
7h Panama Canal sees transit growth amid Middle East tensions, Iran threat persists
NO ▲4¢
Bitcoin price predictions in april
2 articles
Developing
16%
▼4¢
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 16% FLAT
1h Bitcoin hits $77,000 as Fed decision looms, Trump eyes Hormuz blockade
5h White House director predicts crypto surge post-CLARITY Act passage
NO ▲2¢
Bitcoin price targets
6 articles
Developing
16%
▼2¢
19m Bitcoin ETFs see $89.7M outflow, BlackRock’s IBIT leads with $112M
44m XRP ETFs see $2.2M inflows as Bitcoin, Ethereum ETFs face outflows
52m Morgan Stanley launches first major Wall Street spot Bitcoin ETF
NO ▲2¢
Zelenskyy and putin meeting locations
1 article
Developing
13%
▼2¢
1h James Comey indicted again over Instagram post allegedly threatening Trump
YES ▲2¢
Ethereum price in 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
16%
▲2¢
2h Bitmine buys 45,000 ETH for $95.3M, holding 4.1% of total supply
NO ▲1¢
Gangwon province governor election
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼1¢
3h Kim Jong UN endorses troops’ suicide to avoid capture, backs Russia in Ukraine war
NO ▲1¢
Fall of the Iranian regime
2 articles
· 4h ago
3%
▼1¢
✓ 24h US silence on Iran school strike raises strategic questions
5h Iran launches airstrikes on US bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
5 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
8m TotalEnergies warns of tighter oil supply as Strait of Hormuz closes
33m Qatar implements business relief as Iran war impacts regional economy
4h White House envoy to meet Iranian officials in Islamabad amid tensions
Likely NO
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
0%
▼0¢
1h Lebanon PM condemns Israel for ‘war crimes’ after attack kills 3 rescue workers
6h BeYachad alliance opposes Netanyahu, impacts Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire prospects
Likely NO
Trump's blockade of hormuz announcement
1 article
Developing
51%
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 16% FLAT
4m Trump prepares for extended Hormuz blockade, dampening quick resolution hopes
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
2 articles
Developing
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
16m Ali Larijani assassinated amid US-Israeli strikes, Iran regime stability in question
2h Iranian escalation fears coincide with US-Iran ceasefire odds collapse
Likely NO
Fed decisions in june and july
1 article
Developing
87%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed rate decisions 0% FLAT
23m Iran conflict de-escalation stabilizes inflation expectations, Fed rate cut unlikely
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
2 articles
Developing
16%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's blockade of hormuz announcement 50% FLAT
24m Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz closed, deepening global supply chain disruptions
4h Panama Canal fees hit $4M as Hormuz blockade reroutes shipping traffic
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire extensions
4 articles
Developing
99.8%
▼0¢
30m Israel destroys major Hezbollah tunnel in Lebanon, ceasefire prospects dim
49m Judges deny Netanyahu delay request in corruption trial
1h Hesder Yeshiva students mobilize for defense amid Hezbollah tensions
Likely NO
Crude oil price by end of june
1 article
Developing
65%
▼0¢
54m US-Iran tensions boost crude prices, lift Sinopec and CNOOC earnings
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
1h Trump declares military victory over Iran, reducing strike likelihood
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 3% FLAT
1h US blockade halts Iranian sea trade, Strait of Hormuz traffic stalls
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
3 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h Russian strikes kill 21 in Ukraine on Chernobyl anniversary
5h Ukrainian drone attack ignites Tuapse oil refinery, escalating energy strikes
6h Ukraine drone strikes intensify, complicating peace outlook
Likely NO
Military action against Iran by april 30
2 articles
Developing
0%
▼0¢
1h GCC summit in Saudi Arabia focuses on Iranian missile threat
✓ 21h Pentagon may downplay US missile shortage severity, impacting Iran conflict bets
Likely NO
Netanyahu's departure
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
2h HRW accuses Israel of war crimes over Golan Heights settlements
Likely NO
Starmer out
1 article
· 2h ago
67%
▼0¢
2h UK parliament votes against inquiry into PM Starmer over Mandelson scandal
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns by may 31
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
3h Trump calls for Jimmy Kimmel’s firing; FCC reviews Disney licenses
Likely NO
Fed decision april and june
1 article
· 3h ago
87%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decisions in june and july 4% FLAT
3h Australia inflation amid Iran war oil shock, rate hike likely
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting by date
1 article
· 3h ago
30%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's visits to China 0% FLAT
⚡ US x Iran permanent peace deal 1% FLAT
✓ 63h Trump plans extended Iran blockade, imposes new sanctions
Likely NO
US-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 5h ago
0%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran's enriched uranium 0% FLAT
✓ 35h Trump orders extended Iran blockade, escalating diplomatic tensions
Likely NO
Crude oil prices by end of june
1 article
· 6h ago
3%
▼0¢
6h Middle East tensions push WTI crude price expectations to $160 by April 2026
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
1 article
· 6h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 3% FLAT
✓ 36h Iran proposes reopening Strait of Hormuz post-war, US rejects conditions
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
1 article
· 7h ago
30%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 1% FLAT
7h Vance questions Pentagon war narrative, highlights US weapons stockpile concerns
Likely NO
US crude oil reserves by may 1
1 article
· 7h ago
0%
▼0¢
7h Sweden warns of jet fuel shortage amid Middle East conflict concerns