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2h James Comey indicted for threats against Trump via Instagram post
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
2h James Comey indicted for threats against Trump via Instagram post
▼ James comey arrest predictions
7% (was 10%, ▼3¢ in 2h)
NO ▲2¢
Crude oil price by end of june
1 article
· 3h ago
63%
▼2¢
3h US-Iran tensions boost crude prices, lift Sinopec and CNOOC earnings
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
7 articles
Developing
14%
4m Bitcoin futures funding rates hit one-year low as price nears record
2h Bitcoin spot ETFs see $89.6M outflow, BlackRock leads with $112M
3h Bitcoin ETFs see $89.7M outflow, BlackRock’s IBIT leads with $112M
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
3 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
11m Somali piracy surges as Iran conflict diverts naval forces
✓ 21h Japan’s PM engages with Iran for safe Strait of Hormuz passage
3h Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz closed, deepening global supply chain disruptions
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns by may 31
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
✓ 242m FCC orders review of Disney’s ABC licenses after Trump demands Kimmel firing
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
45m Pentagon under scrutiny for Minab school strike amid Iran regime pressure
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors by april 30
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
46m Ukraine intercepts 30,000 drones in March amid ongoing conflict with Russia
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
1 article
Developing
22%
▼0¢
49m Pentagon chief Hegseth to testify on Iran conflict amid market watch
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions in april
3 articles
Developing
13%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 14% FLAT
51m Bitcoin exchange netflows surge by 9,905 BTC, largest inflow in 30 days
1h Bitcoin transaction volume surpasses Visa, Mastercard in 2025
4h Bitcoin hits $77,000 as Fed decision looms, Trump eyes Hormuz blockade
Likely NO
Crude oil prices by end of june
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 3% FLAT
56m EU maintains Iran sanctions, impacting crude oil and US-Iran ceasefire outlook
1h Iran’s ex-fuel suppliers seek energy deals, impacting crude oil market
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
59m Iran asserts right to counter US actions amid Gulf tensions
4h Trump declares military victory over Iran, reducing strike likelihood
Likely NO
Military action against Iran by april 30
3 articles
Developing
0%
▼0¢
1h US base damage in Gulf highlights UK-Iran strike contract on Polymarket
4h GCC summit in Saudi Arabia focuses on Iranian missile threat
✓ 24h Pentagon may downplay US missile shortage severity, impacting Iran conflict bets
Likely NO
MegaETH token launch timeline
1 article
Developing
97%
▼0¢
1h MegaETH confirms token generation event for April 30, 2026
Likely NO
Netanyahu's departure
1 article
Developing
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu's departure 6% FLAT
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire extensions 100% FLAT
1h Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon test ceasefire stability
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Jerome Powell likely chairs final FOMC meeting, Kevin Warsh to succeed
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
1 article
Developing
8%
▼0¢
1h Iran cuts gas consumption after losing 18.5M gallons of fuel in facility damage
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting by date
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
⚡ US x Iran ceasefire extensions 0% FLAT
✓ 61h Trump rejects Tehran’s plea, calls Iran in ‘state of collapse’
Likely NO
Fed rate decisions
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
1h US Treasury yields climb as Fed meeting nears amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 0% FLAT
✓ 21h Mojtaba Khamenei halts US talks, raising focus on Iran leadership change
3h Ali Larijani assassinated amid US-Israeli strikes, Iran regime stability in question
Likely NO
Fed decisions in june and july
2 articles
Developing
86%
▼0¢
1h Lloyds profits jump 33% on higher rates as BOE holds steady
3h Iran conflict de-escalation stabilizes inflation expectations, Fed rate cut unlikely
Likely NO
Iran uranium stockpile surrender
2 articles
· 2h ago
30%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's visits to pakistan 6% FLAT
⚡ US x Iran permanent peace deal 1% FLAT
2h Trump cancels delegations, rejects Iran proposal amid uranium talks limbo
2h Iran weighs Trump’s negotiation proposal, ceasefire unlikely by April 30
Likely NO
US recession 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
1%
▼0¢
2h Oil supply disruption raises US recession risk for 2026
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire extensions
4 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Israel strikes southern Lebanon despite nominal ceasefire, tensions rise
3h Israel destroys major Hezbollah tunnel in Lebanon, ceasefire prospects dim
3h Judges deny Netanyahu delay request in corruption trial
Likely NO
Ethereum price in 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
2h Fenbushi Capital moves $7.1M ETH from AAVE to Binance after exploit
Likely NO
Trump's blockade of hormuz announcement
1 article
· 2h ago
16%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 16% FLAT
✓ 42h Trump prepares for extended Hormuz blockade, dampening quick resolution hopes
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
2 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
2h TotalEnergies warns of tighter oil supply as Strait of Hormuz closes
3h Qatar implements business relief as Iran war impacts regional economy
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 3% FLAT
4h US blockade halts Iranian sea trade, Strait of Hormuz traffic stalls
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
4h Russian strikes kill 21 in Ukraine on Chernobyl anniversary
Likely NO
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
· 4h ago
0%
▼0¢
4h Lebanon PM condemns Israel for ‘war crimes’ after attack kills 3 rescue workers