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1h Bitcoin exchange netflows surge by 9,905 BTC, largest inflow in 30 days
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
1h Bitcoin exchange netflows surge by 9,905 BTC, largest inflow in 30 days
▲ Bitcoin price predictions in april
25% (was 13%, ▲12¢ in 1h)
⚡ Bitcoin price targets: 14% FLAT
YES ▲12¢
Bitcoin price predictions in april
2 articles
Developing
25%
▲12¢
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 14% FLAT
1h 2h Bitcoin transaction volume surpasses Visa, Mastercard in 2025
YES ▲11¢
Bitcoin price targets
4 articles
Developing
25%
▲11¢
1h Bitcoin futures funding rates hit one-year low as price nears record
3h Bitcoin spot ETFs see $89.6M outflow, BlackRock leads with $112M
4h Bitcoin ETFs see $89.7M outflow, BlackRock’s IBIT leads with $112M
NO ▲1¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼1¢
⚡ Fed chair confirmation 92% FLAT
56m Kevin Warsh Fed chair nomination heads to Senate Banking Committee vote
✓ 22h Jerome Powell likely chairs final FOMC meeting, Kevin Warsh to succeed
NO ▲1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
Developing
30%
▼1¢
1h Trump orders extended Hormuz blockade, escalating US-Iran tensions
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate decisions
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼1¢
2h US Treasury yields climb as Fed meeting nears amid geopolitical tensions
NO ▲1¢
James comey arrest predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
9%
▼1¢
3h James Comey indicted for threats against Trump via Instagram post
Likely NO
Which party will win the house in 2026?
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
9m DOJ cuts voting rights staff, shifts focus to voter fraud investigations
Likely NO
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire extensions 100% FLAT
10m Hezbollah drone attack dims hopes for long-term Israel ceasefire
Likely NO
Military action against Iran by april 30
3 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire extensions 100% FLAT
20m New IRA bombing raises fears of Iran, Hezbollah militant ties in Northern Ireland
46m Google-Pentagon AI deal boosts confidence in Gemini model quality
2h US base damage in Gulf highlights UK-Iran strike contract on Polymarket
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
24m Zelensky praises Ukrainian drone strikes deep in Russia, ceasefire odds unchanged
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
36m Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Airport reopens after 57-day suspension
2h Iran asserts right to counter US actions amid Gulf tensions
Likely NO
Iran uranium stockpile surrender
3 articles
Developing
30%
▼0¢
⚡ US x Iran ceasefire extensions 0% FLAT
⚡ US x Iran permanent peace deal 1% FLAT
37m Trump’s hardline Iran stance impacts Polymarket contracts, peace deal odds drop
3h Trump cancels delegations, rejects Iran proposal amid uranium talks limbo
3h Iran weighs Trump’s negotiation proposal, ceasefire unlikely by April 30
Likely NO
Trump visit China
1 article
Developing
65%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's visits to China 0% FLAT
44m Taiwan tops Beijing agenda for Trump-Xi summit on May 14-15
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
4 articles
Developing
16%
▼0¢
✓ 248m Japanese tankers cross Hormuz after talks with Iran
1h Somali piracy surges as Iran conflict diverts naval forces
✓ 22h Japan’s PM engages with Iran for safe Strait of Hormuz passage
Likely NO
Crude oil price by end of june
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
1h Brent crude oil hits $115 amid Iran-Israel conflict, highest since 2022
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns by may 31
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
✓ 31h FCC orders review of Disney’s ABC licenses after Trump demands Kimmel firing
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h Pentagon under scrutiny for Minab school strike amid Iran regime pressure
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
3 articles
Developing
3%
⚡ US x Iran ceasefire extensions 0% FLAT
1m Iran asserts defense rights, casting doubt on US-Iran ceasefire stability
4h TotalEnergies warns of tighter oil supply as Strait of Hormuz closes
4h Qatar implements business relief as Iran war impacts regional economy
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors by april 30
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h Ukraine intercepts 30,000 drones in March amid ongoing conflict with Russia
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
1 article
Developing
22%
▼0¢
1h Pentagon chief Hegseth to testify on Iran conflict amid market watch
Likely NO
Crude oil prices by end of june
2 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 3% FLAT
2h EU maintains Iran sanctions, impacting crude oil and US-Iran ceasefire outlook
2h Iran’s ex-fuel suppliers seek energy deals, impacting crude oil market
Likely NO
MegaETH token launch timeline
1 article
· 2h ago
97%
▼0¢
2h MegaETH confirms token generation event for April 30, 2026
Likely NO
Netanyahu's departure
1 article
· 2h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu's departure 6% FLAT
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire extensions 100% FLAT
2h Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon test ceasefire stability
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
1 article
· 2h ago
8%
▼0¢
2h Iran cuts gas consumption after losing 18.5M gallons of fuel in facility damage
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting by date
1 article
· 2h ago
0%
▼0¢
⚡ US x Iran ceasefire extensions 0% FLAT
✓ 62h Trump rejects Tehran’s plea, calls Iran in ‘state of collapse’
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
2 articles
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 0% FLAT
✓ 23h Mojtaba Khamenei halts US talks, raising focus on Iran leadership change
4h Ali Larijani assassinated amid US-Israeli strikes, Iran regime stability in question
Likely NO
Fed decisions in june and july
2 articles
· 3h ago
86%
▼0¢
3h Lloyds profits jump 33% on higher rates as BOE holds steady
4h Iran conflict de-escalation stabilizes inflation expectations, Fed rate cut unlikely
Likely NO
US recession 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
1%
▼0¢
3h Oil supply disruption raises US recession risk for 2026
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire extensions
2 articles
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
✓ 23h Israel strikes southern Lebanon despite nominal ceasefire, tensions rise
4h Israel destroys major Hezbollah tunnel in Lebanon, ceasefire prospects dim
Likely NO
Ethereum price in 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
3h Fenbushi Capital moves $7.1M ETH from AAVE to Binance after exploit
Likely NO
Trump's blockade of hormuz announcement
1 article
· 4h ago
16%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization 16% FLAT
✓ 44h Trump prepares for extended Hormuz blockade, dampening quick resolution hopes