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The Pentagon reports advances against Iran, but Iran remains defiant. Odds for a ceasefire by April 7 have plummeted to 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
Traders are skeptical about near-term peace. The April 7 market is stagnant at 1% YES, while April 15 is at 6.5% YES. The April 30 market shows slight optimism at 17.5%, though it’s a drop from 40% a week ago. May 31 is at 36.5% YES, and June 30 at 51.5% YES, indicating traders expect changes after April. The jump from April 30 to May 31 is 19 points.
Trading volume reflects this sentiment. The April 30 market sees $196,968 in USDC traded daily, compared to $22,948 on April 7. Shifting April 7 odds requires $12,367, while $19,938 would move April 30 odds by 5 points. The largest recent move was a 2-point spike on April 30 at 5:08 PM.
Despite the Pentagon’s claims, the market doesn’t foresee an imminent ceasefire. A YES share for April 7 at 1¢ would pay $1, but with only four days left, a sudden diplomatic breakthrough seems unlikely. Military buildup and rhetoric keep traders wary.
Watch for shifts from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. Secretary of Defense Hegseth’s next briefing could influence odds if diplomatic engagement is hinted. Until then, expect continued skepticism.
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