Trump reports 34 ships transited Strait of Hormuz amid US blockade plans

Trump reports 34 ships transited the Strait of Hormuz amid plans for a US blockade. The probability of another country conducting military action against Iran by April 15 is at 9% YES, up from 5% yesterday.

The market for other countries’ military actions against Iran by April 15 has three days left to resolve. The 4-point jump reflects trader concern about imminent conflict. The April 30 market sits at 22% YES, suggesting traders see a real chance of a catalyst in the next two weeks. The most relevant actors are Trump, Netanyahu, and regional Gulf leaders.

Liquidity in these markets is thin. The April 15 market holds $3,427 in USDC and the April 30 market holds $3,089. It takes just $447 to move the April 15 odds by 5 points. A 3-point spike at 1:19 PM was likely triggered by orders reacting to the announced US blockade plans.

Traders are pricing in the possibility that a US blockade of Iranian ports draws other nations into military action. At 22¢, a YES share pays $1 if military action occurs by April 30, a 4.5x return. For this bet to be profitable, you’d need to believe significant military developments will occur within 18 days.

Watch for CENTCOM’s blockade execution tomorrow and any military movements from regional allies. Statements from Trump or Netanyahu and actions from Gulf states could move these odds sharply.

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