US-Israeli strikes hit Tehran, smoke plumes rise amid escalating conflict

Iranian media report smoke plumes rising in Tehran, attributed to ongoing U.S.-Israeli strikes targeting key infrastructure. The probability of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 is at 11.5% YES, up from 8% just 24 hours ago.

Traders are reacting to intensified targeting around Tehran, which increases pressure on the Iranian regime. The June 30 market climbed 3.5% since yesterday. With 82 days remaining until resolution, the odds reflect growing concern over regime sustainability as the conflict escalates.

Daily volume is $36,383 in USDC, with a face value of $408,385. It takes $22,171 to move the price 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity. The largest single move in the past 24 hours was a 1-point drop at 7:52 AM, as traders responded cautiously to continuous conflict signals.

The odds increase tracks with U.S.-Israeli strikes penetrating deeper into urban Tehran. Strikes on civilian-adjacent infrastructure and the potential for further retaliation could accelerate regime instability. At 11.5¢, buying YES offers a 8.7x return, betting on regime collapse within 82 days. For that bet to pay off, traders would need to see signs of regime fracture or leadership crisis.

Watch for Assembly of Experts meetings, IRGC defections, or high-profile leadership disappearances. Any of these could move odds sharply if they point toward internal breakdown.

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