US maintains Hormuz blockade, Vance says Iran must act

US Vice President J.D. Vance said the next move in negotiations belongs to Iran, with the US maintaining its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The market on Trump announcing a blockade lift by April 15 sits at just 6% YES.

The blockade’s continuation has moved the May 31 market, now at 81% YES. The 52-point gap between the April 19 and May 31 sub-markets suggests traders expect a resolution or policy change closer to the May deadline, not before.

The April 17 market is at 16.5% YES, with $2,674 in daily USDC volume, a sign of skepticism about near-term de-escalation. The market on whether no qualifying US-Iran diplomatic meeting occurs by June 30 is at 2.1% YES.

Trading volume across all blockade sub-markets is $16,873 daily in USDC. Moving the price 5 percentage points costs between $1,087 and $3,011, meaning the market can absorb small orders but remains exposed to larger positions.

Vance’s remarks reinforce a hard negotiating posture that makes a quick resolution less likely. A YES share at 6¢ pays 16.67x if the blockade lifts by April 15, but that bet requires believing Iran will make major concessions within 24 hours.

Watch for communications from Abbas Araghchi or unexpected diplomatic moves from neutral parties like Oman or Qatar. Either could shift both blockade and diplomatic meeting markets.

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