China calls for US-Iran ceasefire as Iran seeks compensation from Gulf states

Xi’s peace proposal and Iran’s compensation demands are shifting US-Iran conflict dynamics on Polymarket. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market sits at 100% YES, while the US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22 trades at 12.5% YES.

## Market reaction

China’s call for an immediate ceasefire appears to have cemented the view that a near-term cessation of hostilities is inevitable, at least on paper. The April 15 ceasefire market reflects this certainty. The real action is in the permanent peace deal markets. The April 22 peace market moved from 8% to 12.5% over the past day on $68,089 in actual USDC, suggesting skepticism about a lasting resolution.

## Why it matters

The term structure shows a growing expectation for a significant development between late April and May. The biggest jump is between April 30 and May 31, a 15-point increase, with traders pricing in a catalyst during that window. The June 30 market is at 46.5% YES, pointing to longer-term optimism.

Combined face value across these markets is $1.24M, with $188,390 in actual USDC traded. The cost to move these markets by 5 points ranges from $4,250 to $10,359. The largest single move was a 9-point drop in the June 30 market, driven by large trades.

## What to watch

China’s diplomatic intervention could stabilize the ceasefire markets but complicate the peace deal odds. At 13¢, a YES share pays $1 if a permanent deal is struck by April 22, a 7.7x return. For that to happen, significant diplomatic traction is needed beyond China’s proposals.

Watch for Trump’s and CENTCOM’s statements on new military action or withdrawals. Gulf states’ responses to Iran’s compensation demands could also shift broader regional diplomacy and feed back into these markets.

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