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The US proposed a 20-year freeze on Iran’s uranium enrichment during negotiations. The “Trump’s Agreement to Iranian Demands in April” market currently sits at 0% YES.
The proposal could soften the negotiating stance, potentially leading to Trump agreeing to some Iranian demands. Odds for Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April remain at 0% YES, but traders may read this as an opening for diplomatic progress. The US-Iran ceasefire market is at
The Iran’s Surrender of Enriched Uranium Stockpile market shows varied confidence. The April 30, 2026 sub-market is at 9.2% YES, down from 23% a day ago. The December 31, 2026 sub-market is at 39% YES, up from 25% a week ago. The June 30, 2026 sub-market is at 24% YES, suggesting traders expect a mid-year catalyst.
Combined 24h USDC traded across these markets is $32,277. The April 30 sub-market has the highest daily face value at $82,448, but moving the price 5 points requires only $1,393, a sign of thin liquidity. The largest price move was a 2-point drop at 3:22 AM.
The proposal signals a possible shift in US strategy that could ease the path to further agreements. Iran’s historical resistance to enrichment restrictions, though, suggests this could be more noise than a genuine breakthrough. At 9¢, a YES share in the April 30 uranium stockpile market pays $1 if Iran agrees to surrender its stockpile by then, a risky bet given the early stage of talks and Iran’s track record of rejecting similar constraints.
Watch for statements from Iranian Foreign Minister Sayed Abbas Araghchi or any public response from Ali Khamenei. Their reactions will determine whether this proposal gains traction or stalls.
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