US spot Bitcoin ETFs see $125M outflow despite BlackRock inflow

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of $125 million, even as BlackRock’s IBIT ETF pulled in $40.38 million. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, sits at 34.5% YES, down from 36% yesterday.

The $100,000 target market dropped from 36% to 34.5% over 24 hours following the ETF outflow data. Traders appear to be pricing in macro risk-off sentiment tied to escalating U.S.-Iran tensions and President Trump’s ultimatum regarding the Strait of Hormuz. BlackRock’s $40.38 million IBIT inflow was not enough to offset the net negative across the broader ETF category.

The $150,000 target market for Bitcoin held steady at 9.5% YES, with the largest move being a 1-point spike. USDC trading volumes in both markets are thin: $2,613 in the $100,000 market and $877 in the $150,000 market. At these levels, even small trades can shift odds meaningfully.

The net ETF outflows and geopolitical risk are pulling in the same direction. BlackRock’s inflow signals some institutional buying, but it’s a fraction of the overall $125 million net negative. A YES share in the $100,000 market costs 34.5¢ and pays $1 if Bitcoin hits the target, a 2.9x return. That payout implies traders need to see major macro shifts or regulatory changes to justify the bet.

Developments from the Trump administration on the Middle East conflict could directly affect Bitcoin’s perceived safe-haven status. Any new ETF flow data, BlackRock positioning changes, or SEC announcements on crypto regulation are the most likely catalysts for movement in these contracts.

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