Bitcoin’s active addresses have dropped to an 8-year low. The odds of Bitcoin hitting $100,000 by the end of 2026 are at 36.5% YES, up from 31% just 24 hours ago.
The network activity decline comes as geopolitical tensions, including the US-Iran conflict, weigh on the market. Bitcoin’s price remains near $70K, and institutional accumulation suggests a low-volatility environment. The $100,000 market’s move to 36.5% YES contrasts with the $150,000 target, which sits at 9.0% YES.
Total actual USDC volume for Bitcoin price targets is $4,428, with the $100,000 market seeing the most action. It takes $8,405 to move the $100,000 market 5 percentage points, which points to reasonable depth. The largest price move was a 1-point spike at 11:31 PM, likely driven by institutional trades.
The drop in active addresses could signal reduced network engagement, which is a risk to bullish bets even as institutional interest holds. A YES share at 37¢ pays $1 if Bitcoin hits $100,000 by December 31, a 2.7x return. Bears may read this as waning speculative activity; bulls will point to institutional stability.
Traders should watch for BlackRock’s ETF inflows, MicroStrategy purchases, or any SEC announcements. Geopolitical developments around the US-Iran conflict could also move market sentiment.
