Bitcoin and Ethereum have gained value as the Iran War disrupts traditional safe havens. The Polymarket contract for Bitcoin reaching $100,000 by December 31, 2026, is at 36.5% YES, up from 31% yesterday.

Market reaction

The 36.5% YES odds for the $100,000 target rose 5.5 percentage points over 24 hours. The $150,000 target sits at 9.0% YES, largely unchanged. The largest recent move was a 1-point spike at 11:31 PM, driven by $4,214 in actual USDC.

Why it matters

The shift toward digital assets coincides with traditional safe havens losing appeal during the conflict, as geopolitical tensions and oil disruptions weigh on conventional hedges. The Bitcoin $100,000 market has a face value trading volume of $13,000/day but can be moved with $8,405, which points to moderate depth and possible volatility from relatively small orders.

What to watch

At 36¢, buying YES shares offers a 2.74x return if Bitcoin hits $100,000. Regulatory crackdowns or a hawkish Fed could reverse gains. On the upside, institutional adoption announcements, SEC rulings, and Bitcoin ETF inflows could push odds higher.

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