The European Union is considering importing more American jet fuel due to potential shortages caused by the Iran conflict, with the Polymarket contract for WTI Crude Oil hitting $160 in April 2026 trading at 1.2% YES.
Market reaction
The EU’s reliance on Gulf refineries for jet fuel has become a liability with the Strait of Hormuz blockade, pushing traders toward WTI Crude Oil markets. Prices could rise if supply disruptions continue into late April. The June Crude Oil predictions market is also drawing attention, with current odds suggesting potential increases by mid-year.
Trading volume for the April WTI contract is thin: $316 in actual USDC traded daily against a $20,174 face value. The order book shows it would take $2,188 to move the price by 5 percentage points, making the market sensitive to large trades. The biggest price move in the past 24 hours was a drop from 2% to 1.2% YES, as traders remain skeptical about hitting $160 without more severe disruptions.
Why it matters
The EU’s contingency plans, including increased US imports and joint purchasing, point to how serious the supply threat is. With about six weeks of fuel reserves left, the EU is racing to fill the gap before shortages hit. At 1.2¢, a YES share pays $1 if WTI hits $160 in April, offering a 83.3x return. For that bet to pay off, disruptions would need to escalate significantly within 10 days.
What to watch
Watch for EIA reports on strategic stock releases or any OPEC+ announcements that could shift supply expectations. Statements from Donald Trump or Iranian officials that signal changes in the conflict’s trajectory could also move this market quickly.
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