Iran-US ceasefire to end April 22, extension unlikely as talks remain uncertain

Pakistan’s Information Minister Attaullah Tarar announced the Iran-US ceasefire will end at 4:50 a.m. PST on April 22. The market for ceasefire extension by April 21 sits at 19% YES, down from 69% a week ago.

The April 30 ceasefire market is at 26.5% YES, with traders skeptical of a longer-term resolution. Iran’s attendance at talks in Islamabad remains unconfirmed.

The April 21 extension market has moved the most. A 16-point drop at 2:54 PM marked a sharp repricing. This market trades $264,370 in USDC daily, and it would take $2,773 to move the odds by 5 points, indicating relatively thick order book depth.

President Trump has called an extension “highly unlikely,” and Iran’s parliamentary speaker has hinted at military escalation if there is no progress. At 36¢, a YES share on the extension market pays 2.78x, but the price reflects substantial trader doubt that a deal gets done in time.

Watch for last-minute announcements from Pakistan’s Prime Minister or Iranian leadership. A statement confirming Iran’s participation in Islamabad talks could reprice the market. Trump’s posts on Truth Social and CENTCOM operational updates are the other signals to track.

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