EU countries have expanded sanctions against Iran, targeting those responsible for blocking the Strait of Hormuz. The market on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands for oil sanction relief in April sits at 25.5% YES, down from 36% a day ago.
The new sanctions harden the Western stance against Iran and are moving several prediction markets. With just 10 days left until market resolution, traders are pricing in increased geopolitical tension. The sub-market for Trump’s agreement trades $4,106 in actual USDC daily.
For the Iran uranium enrichment agreement by April 30, odds are at 24.8% YES, up from 26% yesterday. An 8-point spike occurred at 1:10 AM, moving from 22% to 29%. The market trades $13,425 in actual USDC daily, with the order book requiring $1,417 to shift odds by 5 points.
The EU’s action signals a unified Western front, which makes both Trump conceding to Iranian demands and Iran ending uranium enrichment before month’s end less likely. At 43¢, a YES share for Trump’s agreement offers a 2.33x return, but that bet requires believing a sudden diplomatic pivot is coming within days.
Watch for statements from the U.S. Treasury on sanctions, potential IAEA inspections in Iran, and any shifts in rhetoric from Iranian leadership. These could move both markets sharply.
