Indonesia discusses US military overflights amid US-Iran tensions

The Indonesian government is in talks with the US over military overflights in its airspace, amid heightened US-Iran tensions. The US invasion of Iran market sits at 0% YES, while other countries conducting military action against Iran by April 15 is at 9% YES.

## Market reaction

The market for another country conducting military action against Iran by April 15 moved from 5% to 9% YES in the last 24 hours. The April 30 market is more active at 21.5%, suggesting traders expect a catalyst later in the month. Total volume on the non-US military action markets: $6,516 in USDC traded over the past day.

## Why it matters

The cost to move the April 15 market by 5 points is just $447, meaning a single large order can shift the price substantially. The April 30 market requires $1,311 for a similar move, making it somewhat harder to push around. This thin liquidity means the 5%-to-9% jump may reflect one or two traders rather than broad consensus.

The US invasion market has not moved at all, still at 0% YES. The activity is concentrated in the other-countries markets, where traders appear to be pricing in increased rhetoric and NATO logistics support as signs of slow escalation rather than imminent action.

## What to watch

Any statements from NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on the alliance’s stance toward Iran could move these markets. Operational shifts from CENTCOM would also be worth tracking, particularly if they signal force posture changes in the region.

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