UK PM Starmer faces US pressure on Iran as Trump predicts deal

UK PM Starmer reported US pressure on Iran while Trump forecast a deal. The market on Trump agreeing to Iranian oil sanction relief in April sits at 36% YES, down from 38% yesterday.

The sanction relief market spiked 7 points to 41% before falling back to 36%. Traders remain skeptical of immediate relief even with Trump’s optimism. The diplomatic meeting market is at 3% YES for no qualifying meeting by June 30, 2026, with no location locked in.

Starmer’s comments point to real tension between US demands and UK strategic independence. For traders, Trump’s prediction is talk without concrete steps toward an agreement. The market has not priced in any diplomatic breakthrough.

The Iranian demands market traded $23,370 in USDC over the past 24 hours. But $442 is enough to swing the odds by 5 points, which signals thin liquidity and volatility. The diplomatic meeting market is even thinner, with $218 moving it 5 points.

Watch for announcements from the White House or Iranian officials on concessions, particularly on oil sanctions or diplomatic engagements. Movement on either front could reprice both markets quickly.

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