Trump dismisses 20-year minimum in Iran uranium deal, raising agreement barriers

Trump dismissed a 20-year minimum for a uranium deal with Iran, raising barriers to an agreement. The odds for Iran ending enrichment by April 30 are at 46.3% YES, up from 35% a day ago.

Traders in the Iran uranium enrichment market pushed odds higher, reading Trump’s stance as a barrier to a quick resolution. The market sat at 10% a week ago, so the move to nearly 40% reflects growing skepticism that a deal can materialize in the next 14 days.

Volume in the last 24 hours was $23,824 in USDC, with $599 of depth needed to move the market five points. The order book is relatively thick, and traders are actively positioning on the outcome.

Trump’s firm position signals potential stalemate rather than progress. At 46.3¢, a YES share pays $1 if resolved, offering a 2.56x return. Buying YES here requires believing in a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough with 14 days left on the clock.

Watch for statements from the IAEA or Iranian officials confirming or denying progress. Any movement from mediators in Islamabad or a shift in the US negotiating position could move this market quickly.