Earn with Nexo
Iran is allowing Iraq to transit the Strait of Hormuz and has reopened borders for trade and pilgrims. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 market is at 1.1% YES, down from 2% yesterday.
Despite Iran’s move, the US-Iran ceasefire market shows little change. The April 7 market remains low at 1.1% YES, indicating skepticism about quick diplomatic progress. The April 15 market is at 6.5% YES, suggesting traders doubt a near-term resolution.
Longer-term markets show more movement. The April 30 market is at 17.5% YES, down from 24% a day ago, reflecting caution about Iran’s actions leading to diplomacy. The May 31 market dropped to 36.5% YES from 46%.
Market depth analysis shows $12,352 is needed to shift the April 7 odds by 5 points, indicating a thinner market. The April 30 market is more stable, requiring $19,925 for a similar move. USDC traded in the last 24 hours was $431,402, with the largest single move a 2-point spike.
Iran’s de-escalation hasn’t shifted ceasefire odds significantly. Traders await more concrete steps, like formal talks, before betting on a ceasefire. A YES share at 17.5¢ for an April 30 ceasefire pays $1 if resolved, offering a 5.7x return, but requires belief in quick diplomatic progress.
Watch for actions from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar, or statements from US or Iranian officials. Trump’s upcoming communications will be crucial for market sentiment.
Markets Impacted
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? — currently 1.1% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? — currently 6.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? — currently 17.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? — currently 36.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? — currently 51.5% YES
- US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? — currently 68.5% YES
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