Mediators report progress in extending US-Iran ceasefire beyond April 21

Mediators claim progress in prolonging the US-Iran ceasefire, initially agreed on April 8. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 30 sits at 100% YES, with traders pricing in no chance of failure before that date.

The Trump announces US-Iran ceasefire end by April 21, 2026 market dropped to 12% YES, with the largest movement being a 2-point drop at 4:07 AM. This points to reduced expectations of an abrupt ceasefire termination. The ceasefire broken by April 21 market is at 14% YES, after a 3-point spike earlier.

The ceasefire end market has $442,139 in face value traded, with actual USDC at $15,875. It takes $1,634 to move the price 5 points, meaning the market is sensitive to large trades but carries real liquidity. Both breach-related markets remain below 15%, suggesting traders see mediation as likely to hold through the near term.

Traders appear to be pricing in a ceasefire extension beyond April 21, not a permanent resolution. Without concrete commitments or a formal announcement, the situation is fluid. A YES share in the ceasefire broken market at 14¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 7.14x return. That payout requires substantial confidence in a breach within 6 days to justify the bet.

Watch for statements from the Sultan of Oman or the UN Secretary-General, which could shift expectations on the ceasefire’s duration. Any hints of resumed hostilities would move these markets sharply.

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