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5h Powell defends Fed autonomy amid political pressure for rate cuts
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
5h Powell defends Fed autonomy amid political pressure for rate cuts
▲ Fed decision april and june
100% (was 0%, ▲100¢ in 5h)
⚡ Fed rate decisions: 0% FLAT
YES ▲100¢
Fed decision april and june
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▲100¢
⚡ Fed rate decisions 0% FLAT
5h 
YES ▲100¢
Fed chair confirmation
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▲100¢
⚡ Fed rate decisions 0% FLAT
✓ 25h Kevin Warsh to become FOMC Chair as Powell stays on as Fed Governor
NO ▲2¢
Largest company by market cap predictions
2 articles
Developing
84%
▼2¢
1h Amazon eyes AI hardware sales as Nvidia market cap odds shift
3h Amazon stock drops 6% despite Q1 earnings beat; Nvidia eyes top market cap spot
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran ceasefire
3 articles
Developing
30%
▼1¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 31% FLAT
37m Iran threatens to close Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
4h Iran offers combat insights to SCO allies, impacting US-Iran ceasefire outlook
5h Turkey eyes demining role in Strait of Hormuz amid Iran-US peace talks
YES ▲1¢
Ethereum future price predictions
1 article
Developing
4%
▲1¢
1h Tether proposes merger of XXI, Strike, Elektron Energy into public entity
YES ▲1¢
Bitcoin price targets
3 articles
· 2h ago
4%
▲1¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
2h RWA private credit on blockchain surges to $4.5B, Ethereum price outlook steady
3h Bitcoin falls to $75,000 as Fed holds rates steady in divided vote
5h Bitcoin ETFs see $823M inflows led by BlackRock’s IBIT amid US-Iran tensions
NO ▲1¢
Fed decision june and july
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼1¢
⚡ Fed rate decisions 0% FLAT
2h Fed rate hike probability for 2027 rises amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
· 2h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 32% FLAT
2h Trump discusses new Iran proposal with national security aides
✓ 25h Trump hints at further action against Iran after military strikes
Likely NO
MegaETH market cap predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
99%
▼0¢
2h Coinbase supports MegaETH deposits ahead of April 30 token event
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
7%
▼0¢
2h Ukrainian drones strike Russian oil refinery in Orenburg Oblast
Likely NO
Gensyn FDV predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
99%
▼0¢
3h Gensyn AI token debuts on Coinbase, market skeptical of $600M valuation
Likely NO
James comey arrest timeline
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 33h James Comey indictment prompts arrest speculation amid market certainty
Likely NO
Next prime minister of Israel predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu out 6% FLAT
3h Bennett unveils plan to replace Netanyahu with new alliance by June 30
Likely NO
Bitcoin price above on may 1
1 article
· 4h ago
99.8%
▼0¢
4h Eurozone confidence hits low as Bitcoin market remains steady above $68K
Likely NO
Fed rate decisions
2 articles
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 3% FLAT
4h Fed rate hike odds rise amid memory shortage, energy disruptions
6h Fed signals elevated inflation, no rate cuts expected in 2026 amid energy price rise
Likely YES
Largest company by end of april
6 articles
Developing
100%
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% FLAT
1m Samsung profit surges eight-fold on AI demand, beating estimates
7m Samsung Q1 profit beats expectations, starts HBM4 production for Nvidia
2h Amazon’s $225B Trainium chip push challenges Nvidia’s June market lead
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
4 articles
Developing
44%
▼0¢
22m Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, tensions rise with US strategy mockery
2h US-Iran talks stall, Hormuz blockade resolution unlikely by May 31
3h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, threatens action if provoked
Likely NO
Military actions against Iran
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
✓ 235m US plans Middle East deployment of Dark Eagle hypersonic missiles against Iran
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
2 articles
Developing
44%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 44% FLAT
42m Trump orders extended Iran blockade to force nuclear concessions
6h Iran security council unifies on war decisions, reinforcing regime stability
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
11%
▼0¢
44m Putin meets Iran’s FM, complicating US-Iran diplomatic prospects
✓ 24h Trump discusses Ukraine ceasefire with Putin in phone call
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
1 article
Developing
8%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
✓ 21h Trump reviews US troop levels in Germany amid Iran standoff
Likely NO
Brazil presidential election 2026
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
1h Brazil Senate rejects Lula’s Supreme Court nominee, impacting 2026 election strategy
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 0% FLAT
1h Iran holds pro-government rallies amid regime stability concerns
4h Iran threatens retaliation for Khamenei’s killing amid leadership instability
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
✓ 21h Powell: US economy growing at ‘solid pace’ despite Iran war energy shock
✓ 32h US war in Iran costs $25B, impacting Fed rate cut expectations for 2026
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
2 articles
· 2h ago
44%
▼0¢
2h Hormuz shipping traffic trickles as US-Iran tensions escalate
2h UN maritime agency rejects Iran’s toll plan for Strait of Hormuz shipping
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
3 articles
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
2h Senate Banking Committee advances Warsh for Fed Chair, Powell’s exit likely
✓ 22h Kevin Warsh clears Senate committee, markets react to potential Fed leadership change
✓ 34h Powell to remain Fed governor despite Trump’s ‘unprecedented’ criticism
Likely NO
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
2 articles
· 2h ago
0%
▼0¢
2h Trump urges Netanyahu to limit Lebanon strikes as ceasefire falters
5h IDF destroys Hezbollah rocket launcher in civilian building, escalating conflict