Bitcoin falls to $75,000 as Fed holds rates steady in divided vote

Bitcoin fell to $75,000 after the Federal Reserve maintained its current interest rates in a divided 8-4 vote. The odds of Bitcoin reaching $80,000 in April are now at 3.8% YES, down from 10% yesterday.

The market reacted to the Fed’s decision to hold rates steady, which has cast doubt on a near-term rally for Bitcoin. Bitcoin above $86,000 on April 30 sits at 0.1% YES with only a day left to trade. The ongoing Iran war and high oil prices continue to weigh on trader sentiment, reducing the likelihood of a price jump.

Bitcoin price target markets have seen notable movements. The largest was a 6-point spike at 9:50 AM, but overall volume remains subdued. Actual USDC traded in the $80,000 market is $51,800, with an order book depth of $1,391 to move 5 percentage points, meaning relatively small trades could swing the market. The $150,000 market is effectively dormant.

The Fed’s decision reinforces macroeconomic uncertainty around Bitcoin. With Jerome Powell’s last meeting as chair, the hawkish stance given geopolitical risks suggests limited room for a dovish pivot. The probability of Bitcoin hitting $80,000 or $150,000 in the short term is slim. A YES share at 4¢ would pay $1 if Bitcoin does reach $80,000, a 25x return that requires a major shift in current conditions.

Watch for Kevin Warsh’s first moves as Fed Chair and any developments in the Iran war, which could influence oil prices and monetary policy sentiment.

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