Iran holds pro-government rallies amid regime stability concerns

Pro-government rallies are ongoing across Iran as the regime projects stability amid conflict. The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by April 30 sits at 0.1% YES, unchanged from yesterday.

The Iranian government appears to be holding firm despite international tensions and internal unrest. The market for Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 remains muted, consistent with a perception of regime stability. Pro-government rallies suggest a consolidated regime, dampening prospects for Pahlavi’s return. The odds for the regime falling by June 30 are at 7.5% YES, meaning traders expect the government to survive beyond the immediate term.

Trading volume in these markets: the Iranian regime fall market has $4,469,849 in daily face value but only $23,056 in actual USDC traded. It takes $4,529 to move the price 5 percentage points, a relatively stable market. The gap between face value and actual USDC figures means only moderate capital backs these trades. The largest single movement in the past 24 hours was negligible, showing little trader conviction for a significant shift.

The rallies reinforce the regime’s position, effectively countering any narrative of imminent collapse. With no significant defections from the IRGC or disarray in leadership, the current odds seem justified. Buying YES at 8¢ on a June 30 regime fall offers a 12.5x return, but only if you believe a sudden destabilizing event will occur in the next 62 days.

Watch for any shifts in IRGC loyalty or unexpected moves by Mojtaba Khamenei. These would be the clearest indicators of internal instability that could move the markets.

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