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4h Iran threatens to close Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
4h Iran threatens to close Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
▼ US-Iran ceasefire
29% (was 31%, ▼2¢ in 4h)
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting: 31% FLAT
NO ▲2¢
US-Iran ceasefire
1 article
· 4h ago
29%
▼2¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 31% FLAT
4h 
NO ▲2¢
Ethereum future price predictions
1 article
· 5h ago
1%
▼2¢
✓ 25h Tether proposes merger of XXI, Strike, Elektron Energy into public entity
NO ▲2¢
Bitcoin price targets
2 articles
· 6h ago
1%
▼2¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
6h RWA private credit on blockchain surges to $4.5B, Ethereum price outlook steady
7h Bitcoin falls to $75,000 as Fed holds rates steady in divided vote
YES ▲1¢
MegaETH market cap predictions
2 articles
· 2h ago
99.6%
▲1¢
✓ 42h Upbit lists MEGA token with KRW, BTC, USDT trading pairs in South Korea
6h Coinbase supports MegaETH deposits ahead of April 30 token event
NO ▲1¢
Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran
2 articles
· 3h ago
8%
▼1¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
3h Mass rallies in Iran show support for leadership on Imam Reza anniversary
5h Iran holds pro-government rallies amid regime stability concerns
NO ▲1¢
Largest company by market cap predictions
1 article
· 5h ago
85%
▼1¢
5h Amazon eyes AI hardware sales as Nvidia market cap odds shift
YES ▲1¢
US invasion of Iran
1 article
· 6h ago
9%
▲1¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 32% FLAT
6h Trump discusses new Iran proposal with national security aides
NO ▲1¢
Fed decision june and july
1 article
· 6h ago
3%
▼1¢
⚡ Fed rate decisions 0% FLAT
6h Fed rate hike probability for 2027 rises amid geopolitical tensions
NO ▲1¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 6h ago
6%
▼1¢
6h Ukrainian drones strike Russian oil refinery in Orenburg Oblast
YES ▲1¢
Gensyn FDV predictions
1 article
· 7h ago
99.6%
▲1¢
7h Gensyn AI token debuts on Coinbase, market skeptical of $600M valuation
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
4 articles
Developing
44%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Trump rejects Iran proposal, keeps naval blockade amid nuclear deal stalemate
4h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, tensions rise with US strategy mockery
6h US-Iran talks stall, Hormuz blockade resolution unlikely by May 31
Likely NO
US forces enter Iran
1 article
Developing
8%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
1h Iranian jet bombs US base in Kuwait, challenges air defense systems
Likely NO
XRP price in april
2 articles
Developing
99.8%
▼0¢
1h Ripple partners with Kbank to boost XRP institutional demand in South Korea
✓ 22h Ripple partners with Kbank to deploy institutional-grade digital asset wallets
Likely NO
Military actions against Iran
3 articles
Developing
14%
▼0¢
1h CENTCOM to brief Trump on unprecedented military options against Iran
✓ 22h Iran stockpiling missiles to counter US attacks, says Senator Kennedy
✓ 44h US plans Middle East deployment of Dark Eagle hypersonic missiles against Iran
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
3 articles
Developing
8%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
1h US Army eyes control of Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
✓ 26h Hormuz shipping traffic trickles as US-Iran tensions escalate
6h UN maritime agency rejects Iran’s toll plan for Strait of Hormuz shipping
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
1 article
· 2h ago
8%
▼0¢
2h Iranian rial hits record low amid US naval blockade intercepting oil shipments
Likely NO
Kharg island control
1 article
· 2h ago
0%
▼0¢
⚡ Military actions against Iran 0% FLAT
2h CENTCOM plans targeted strikes on Iran amid military escalation talks
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 2h ago
21%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
3 articles
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
2h DOJ ends Powell probe, reducing urgency for Warsh confirmation
6h Senate Banking Committee advances Warsh for Fed Chair, Powell’s exit likely
✓ 26h Kevin Warsh clears Senate committee, markets react to potential Fed leadership change
Likely NO
Fed rate decisions
2 articles
· 2h ago
99.8%
▼0¢
2h Bond market sees higher odds of Fed rate hike by year-end amid inflation concerns
2h BlackRock’s Fawcett sees Fed rate cuts unlikely before December
Likely NO
Largest company by end of april
5 articles
· 3h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 84% FLAT
3h Nvidia market cap surpasses India’s entire stock market
✓ 34h Samsung profit surges eight-fold on AI demand, beating estimates
4h Samsung Q1 profit beats expectations, starts HBM4 production for Nvidia
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions in april
2 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 43h Bitmine buys 65,000 ETH worth $147M in 24 hours, signals institutional interest
3h Middle East tensions pressure crypto markets, Bitcoin $94K odds falter
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 3h ago
0%
▼0¢
✓ 73h Iran tensions push oil prices above $120, potential for further increases
✓ 45h Trump reviews US troop levels in Germany amid Iran standoff
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
1 article
· 4h ago
44%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 44% FLAT
✓ 44h Trump orders extended Iran blockade to force nuclear concessions
Likely NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 4h ago
11%
▼0¢
4h Putin meets Iran’s FM, complicating US-Iran diplomatic prospects
Likely NO
Brazil presidential election 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
24%
▼0¢
5h Brazil Senate rejects Lula’s Supreme Court nominee, impacting 2026 election strategy
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
· 5h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
✓ 25h Powell: US economy growing at ‘solid pace’ despite Iran war energy shock
✓ 56h US war in Iran costs $25B, impacting Fed rate cut expectations for 2026
Likely NO
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
· 6h ago
0%
▼0¢
6h Trump urges Netanyahu to limit Lebanon strikes as ceasefire falters
Likely NO
James comey arrest timeline
1 article
· 7h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 37h James Comey indictment prompts arrest speculation amid market certainty