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12h Iran threatens to close Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
Prediction Markets
Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.
12h Iran threatens to close Strait of Hormuz amid US tensions
▲ US-Iran ceasefire
34% (was 31%, ▲3¢ in 12h)
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting: 31% FLAT
YES ▲3¢
US-Iran ceasefire
1 article
· 12h ago
34%
▲3¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 31% FLAT
12h 
NO ▲2¢
Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline
3 articles
· 10h ago
2%
▼2¢
✓ 610h DOJ ends Powell probe, reducing urgency for Warsh confirmation
✓ 214h Senate Banking Committee advances Warsh for Fed Chair, Powell’s exit likely
✓ 214h Kevin Warsh clears Senate committee, markets react to potential Fed leadership change
NO ▲2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire
1 article
· 12h ago
9%
▼2¢
12h Putin meets Iran’s FM, complicating US-Iran diplomatic prospects
NO ▲2¢
Brazil presidential election 2026
1 article
· 13h ago
22%
▼2¢
13h Brazil Senate rejects Lula’s Supreme Court nominee, impacting 2026 election strategy
YES ▲2¢
US invasion of Iran
1 article
· 14h ago
10%
▲2¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 32% FLAT
14h Trump discusses new Iran proposal with national security aides
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
4 articles
· 9h ago
43%
▼1¢
✓ 49h Trump rejects Iran proposal, keeps naval blockade amid nuclear deal stalemate
12h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, tensions rise with US strategy mockery
14h US-Iran talks stall, Hormuz blockade resolution unlikely by May 31
NO ▲1¢
XRP price in april
2 articles
· 9h ago
99.5%
▼1¢
9h Ripple partners with Kbank to boost XRP institutional demand in South Korea
✓ 211h Ripple partners with Kbank to deploy institutional-grade digital asset wallets
YES ▲1¢
MegaETH market cap predictions
2 articles
· 10h ago
100%
▲1¢
TW✓ 1010h Upbit lists MEGA token with KRW, BTC, USDT trading pairs in South Korea
14h Coinbase supports MegaETH deposits ahead of April 30 token event
NO ▲1¢
Iran's enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 10h ago
20%
▼1¢
✓ 210h Iran refuses to surrender enriched uranium by April 2026 deadline
NO ▲1¢
Fed rate decisions
2 articles
· 10h ago
99.5%
▼1¢
10h Bond market sees higher odds of Fed rate hike by year-end amid inflation concerns
10h BlackRock’s Fawcett sees Fed rate cuts unlikely before December
NO ▲1¢
Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran
2 articles
· 11h ago
8%
▼1¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
11h Mass rallies in Iran show support for leadership on Imam Reza anniversary
13h Iran holds pro-government rallies amid regime stability concerns
NO ▲1¢
Iran leadership change
1 article
· 12h ago
43%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 44% FLAT
✓ 412h Trump orders extended Iran blockade to force nuclear concessions
YES ▲1¢
Largest company by market cap predictions
1 article
· 13h ago
87%
▲1¢
13h Amazon eyes AI hardware sales as Nvidia market cap odds shift
NO ▲1¢
Fed decision june and july
1 article
· 14h ago
3%
▼1¢
⚡ Fed rate decisions 0% FLAT
14h Fed rate hike probability for 2027 rises amid geopolitical tensions
YES ▲1¢
Gensyn FDV predictions
1 article
· 15h ago
100%
▲1¢
15h Gensyn AI token debuts on Coinbase, market skeptical of $600M valuation
Likely NO
US forces enter Iran
1 article
· 9h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
9h Iranian jet bombs US base in Kuwait, challenges air defense systems
Likely NO
Military actions against Iran
3 articles
· 9h ago
6%
▼0¢
9h CENTCOM to brief Trump on unprecedented military options against Iran
✓ 210h Iran stockpiling missiles to counter US attacks, says Senator Kennedy
✓ 412h US plans Middle East deployment of Dark Eagle hypersonic missiles against Iran
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
3 articles
· 9h ago
8%
▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
9h US Army eyes control of Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
✓ 214h Hormuz shipping traffic trickles as US-Iran tensions escalate
14h UN maritime agency rejects Iran’s toll plan for Strait of Hormuz shipping
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
1 article
· 10h ago
8%
▼0¢
✓ 210h Iranian rial hits record low amid US naval blockade intercepting oil shipments
Likely NO
Kharg island control
1 article
· 10h ago
0%
▼0¢
⚡ Military actions against Iran 0% FLAT
10h CENTCOM plans targeted strikes on Iran amid military escalation talks
Likely NO
Largest company by end of april
5 articles
· 11h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap predictions 84% FLAT
✓ 211h Nvidia market cap surpasses India’s entire stock market
✓ 412h Samsung profit surges eight-fold on AI demand, beating estimates
12h Samsung Q1 profit beats expectations, starts HBM4 production for Nvidia
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions in april
2 articles
· 11h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 411h Bitmine buys 65,000 ETH worth $147M in 24 hours, signals institutional interest
11h Middle East tensions pressure crypto markets, Bitcoin $94K odds falter
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in may 2026
2 articles
· 11h ago
0%
▼0¢
✓ 1411h Iran tensions push oil prices above $120, potential for further increases
✓ 413h Trump reviews US troop levels in Germany amid Iran standoff
Likely NO
Ethereum future price predictions
1 article
· 13h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 213h Tether proposes merger of XXI, Strike, Elektron Energy into public entity
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026
2 articles
· 13h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision june and july 4% FLAT
✓ 213h Powell: US economy growing at ‘solid pace’ despite Iran war energy shock
✓ 514h US war in Iran costs $25B, impacting Fed rate cut expectations for 2026
Likely NO
Bitcoin price targets
2 articles
· 14h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum future price predictions 4% FLAT
14h RWA private credit on blockchain surges to $4.5B, Ethereum price outlook steady
15h Bitcoin falls to $75,000 as Fed holds rates steady in divided vote
Likely NO
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
· 14h ago
0%
▼0¢
14h Trump urges Netanyahu to limit Lebanon strikes as ceasefire falters
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
· 15h ago
7%
▼0¢
15h Ukrainian drones strike Russian oil refinery in Orenburg Oblast
Likely NO
James comey arrest timeline
1 article
· 15h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 315h James Comey indictment prompts arrest speculation amid market certainty