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1h Justice Department indicts former FBI Director Comey over threats to Trump
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
1h Justice Department indicts former FBI Director Comey over threats to Trump
▲ James comey arrest predictions
65% (was 8%, ▲57¢ in 1h)
NO ▲8¢
Bitcoin price targets
3 articles
Developing
14%
▼8¢
✓ 21h Bitcoin spot volumes hit 2-year low amid US-Iran tensions
2h 75% of institutions see Bitcoin as undervalued, potential buying interest grows
3h Bitcoin futures funding rates hit one-year low as price nears record
NO ▲3¢
Trump visit China
1 article
· 3h ago
62%
▼3¢
⚡ Trump's visits to China 0% FLAT
3h Taiwan tops Beijing agenda for Trump-Xi summit on May 14-15
NO ▲1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 3h ago
30%
▼1¢
3h Trump orders extended Hormuz blockade, escalating US-Iran tensions
YES ▲1¢
Bitcoin price predictions in april
1 article
· 4h ago
14%
▲1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price targets 14% FLAT
✓ 24h Bitcoin exchange netflows surge by 9,905 BTC, largest inflow in 30 days
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US x Iran ceasefire extensions 0% FLAT
2h Iran asserts defense rights, casting doubt on US-Iran ceasefire stability
Likely NO
Which party will win the house in 2026?
1 article
· 2h ago
0%
▼0¢
2h DOJ cuts voting rights staff, shifts focus to voter fraud investigations
Likely NO
Military action against Iran by april 30
3 articles
· 2h ago
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire extensions 100% FLAT
2h New IRA bombing raises fears of Iran, Hezbollah militant ties in Northern Ireland
3h Google-Pentagon AI deal boosts confidence in Gemini model quality
4h US base damage in Gulf highlights UK-Iran strike contract on Polymarket
Likely NO
Iran uranium stockpile surrender
1 article
· 2h ago
30%
▼0¢
⚡ US x Iran ceasefire extensions 0% FLAT
⚡ US x Iran permanent peace deal 1% FLAT
2h Trump’s hardline Iran stance impacts Polymarket contracts, peace deal odds drop
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
2 articles
· 3h ago
16%
▼0¢
✓ 23h Japanese tankers cross Hormuz after talks with Iran
3h Somali piracy surges as Iran conflict diverts naval forces
Likely NO
Jimmy kimmel fired/resigns by may 31
1 article
· 4h ago
6%
▼0¢
✓ 44h FCC orders review of Disney’s ABC licenses after Trump demands Kimmel firing
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
4h Pentagon under scrutiny for Minab school strike amid Iran regime pressure
Likely NO
Crude oil prices by end of june
2 articles
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 3% FLAT
4h EU maintains Iran sanctions, impacting crude oil and US-Iran ceasefire outlook
4h Iran’s ex-fuel suppliers seek energy deals, impacting crude oil market
Likely NO
MegaETH token launch timeline
1 article
· 4h ago
97%
▼0¢
4h MegaETH confirms token generation event for April 30, 2026
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
1 article
· 4h ago
8%
▼0¢
4h Iran cuts gas consumption after losing 18.5M gallons of fuel in facility damage
Likely YES
WTI crude oil price april 2026
1 article
Developing
50%
7m Trump plans extended Hormuz blockade, WTI crude oil hits $160 in April
Likely NO
Largest company by end of april
2 articles
Developing
99.9%
▼0¢
9m Missile strikes in Qatar spike costs, impact Nvidia supply chain
✓ 21h Iran Strait closure raises market tensions, Bitcoin faces potential volatility
Likely NO
Jerome powell out as Fed chair
3 articles
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed chair confirmation 92% FLAT
15m Jerome Powell’s final Fed rate decision could come April 29 amid regime change
3h Kevin Warsh Fed chair nomination heads to Senate Banking Committee vote
✓ 44h Jerome Powell likely chairs final FOMC meeting, Kevin Warsh to succeed
Likely NO
US recession 2026
1 article
Developing
86%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decisions in june and july 4% FLAT
23m US-Iran tensions heighten economic uncertainty, recession fears grow
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
29m Strait of Hormuz remains closed despite Iran’s reopening announcement
Likely NO
Iran military action against neighbors by april 30
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
35m French Rafale jets intercept Iranian drones targeting UAE bases
4h Ukraine intercepts 30,000 drones in March amid ongoing conflict with Russia
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
39m Putin scales back Victory Day parade amid Ukrainian strike concerns
2h Zelensky praises Ukrainian drone strikes deep in Russia, ceasefire odds unchanged
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
2 articles
Developing
22%
▼0¢
✓ 345m Trump warns Iran amid Hegseth’s Capitol Hill testimony
4h Pentagon chief Hegseth to testify on Iran conflict amid market watch
Likely NO
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
3 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h Israeli strike in Bint Jbeil kills two, including Lebanese soldier
1h Trump extends Israel-Lebanon ceasefire as Hezbollah launches rockets
2h Hezbollah drone attack dims hopes for long-term Israel ceasefire
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions by 2026
2 articles
Developing
5%
▼0¢
1h Czech National Bank eyes 1% Bitcoin reserve allocation for improved returns
1h Bitcoin holds steady at $75K-$76K amid Middle East tensions
Likely NO
Solana price predictions in april
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Circle mints $500M USDC on Solana amid geopolitical tensions
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran
4 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 0% FLAT
✓ 21h UN reports Iran executes 21, arrests 4,000 amid Israel conflict crackdown
✓ 41h Iran’s rial hits record low amid US-Israel ceasefire, oil prices expected to rise
2h Tehran’s Imam Khomeini Airport reopens after 57-day suspension
Likely NO
Crude oil price by end of june
2 articles
Developing
8%
▼0¢
1h UAE oil stocks plummet 66% to record lows amid US-Iran conflict
3h Brent crude oil hits $115 amid Iran-Israel conflict, highest since 2022
Likely NO
Netanyahu's departure
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire extensions 100% FLAT
1h Hezbollah’s Qassem rejects talks with Israel, vows response to aggression
4h Israeli airstrikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon test ceasefire stability
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting by date
1 article
· 4h ago
0%
▼0¢
⚡ US x Iran ceasefire extensions 0% FLAT
✓ 64h Trump rejects Tehran’s plea, calls Iran in ‘state of collapse’