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Prediction Markets

Understanding how real-world events are reflected in market pricing.

Fed decision april and june 100% ▲100¢ Fed chair confirmation 100% ▲100¢ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 11% ▲1¢ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 8% ▲1¢ Fed decision june and july 3% ▼1¢ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire extensions 99.8% ▼0¢ James comey arrest timeline 100% ▼0¢ Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran 3% ▼0¢ Iran leadership change 3% ▼0¢ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 1% ▼0¢ Crude oil prices by end of june 1% ▼0¢ Ethereum future price predictions 3% ▼0¢ Bitcoin price targets 3% ▼0¢ Strait of hormuz traffic 44% ▼0¢ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 3% ▼0¢ Fed rate decisions 3% ▼0¢ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 4% ▼0¢ MegaETH market cap predictions 99% ▼0¢ Gensyn FDV predictions 99% ▼0¢ US-Iran ceasefire 24% ▼0¢ US invasion of Iran 8% ▼0¢ Largest company by end of april 100% ▼0¢ Brazil presidential election 2026 1% ▼0¢ Next prime minister of Israel predictions 6% ▼0¢ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% ▼0¢ Bitcoin price above on may 1 99.8% ▼0¢ Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire 0% ▼0¢ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 8% ▼0¢ Fed decision april and june 100% ▲100¢ Fed chair confirmation 100% ▲100¢ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 11% ▲1¢ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 8% ▲1¢ Fed decision june and july 3% ▼1¢ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire extensions 99.8% ▼0¢ James comey arrest timeline 100% ▼0¢ Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran 3% ▼0¢ Iran leadership change 3% ▼0¢ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 1% ▼0¢ Crude oil prices by end of june 1% ▼0¢ Ethereum future price predictions 3% ▼0¢ Bitcoin price targets 3% ▼0¢ Strait of hormuz traffic 44% ▼0¢ Fed rate cuts predictions for 2026 3% ▼0¢ Fed rate decisions 3% ▼0¢ Jerome powell out as Fed chair timeline 4% ▼0¢ MegaETH market cap predictions 99% ▼0¢ Gensyn FDV predictions 99% ▼0¢ US-Iran ceasefire 24% ▼0¢ US invasion of Iran 8% ▼0¢ Largest company by end of april 100% ▼0¢ Brazil presidential election 2026 1% ▼0¢ Next prime minister of Israel predictions 6% ▼0¢ Largest company by market cap predictions 86% ▼0¢ Bitcoin price above on may 1 99.8% ▼0¢ Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire 0% ▼0¢ WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 8% ▼0¢
Zerohedge3h

Powell defends Fed autonomy amid political pressure for rate cuts

▲ Fed decision april and june
100% (was 0%, ▲100¢ in 3h)
⚡ Fed rate decisions: 0% FLAT
YES ▲100¢ Fed decision april and june 1 article · 3h ago
100% ▲100¢
⚡ Fed rate decisions 0% FLAT
Y▲100
Zerohedge3h
Powell defends Fed autonomy amid political pressure for rate cuts
YES ▲100¢ Fed chair confirmation 1 article · 4h ago
100% ▲100¢
⚡ Fed rate decisions 0% FLAT
Y▲100
Tenet_researchFinancialjuice✓ 24h
Kevin Warsh to become FOMC Chair as Powell stays on as Fed Governor
NO ▲1¢ Fed decision june and july 1 article Developing
3% ▼1¢
⚡ Fed rate decisions 0% FLAT
N▲1
Cointelegraph1h
Fed rate hike probability for 2027 rises amid geopolitical tensions
YES ▲1¢ Russia x Ukraine ceasefire 1 article · 3h ago
11% ▲1¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions 0% FLAT
Y▲1
ReutersMarioNawfal✓ 23h
Trump discusses Ukraine ceasefire with Putin in phone call
Likely NO WTI crude oil prices in may 2026 1 article Developing
8% ▼0¢
⚡ US declaration of war on Iran 8% FLAT
Y↑
Business3m
Trump reviews US troop levels in Germany amid Iran standoff
Likely NO Ethereum future price predictions 1 article Developing
3% ▼0¢
Y↑
TFTC214m
Tether proposes merger of XXI, Strike, Elektron Energy into public entity
Likely NO Brazil presidential election 2026 1 article Developing
1% ▼0¢
Y↑
Business9m
Brazil Senate rejects Lula’s Supreme Court nominee, impacting 2026 election strategy
Likely NO Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran 3 articles Developing
3% ▼0¢
⚡ Iranian regime fall 0% FLAT
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 0% FLAT
N↑
MarioNawfal18m
Iran holds pro-government rallies amid regime stability concerns
Y↑
FirstSquawk3h
Iran threatens retaliation for Khamenei’s killing amid leadership instability
N↑
OilPrice.com5h
Putin backs Iran, complicates US ceasefire hopes amid low market odds
Likely NO US invasion of Iran 2 articles Developing
8% ▼0¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting 32% FLAT
N↑
Reuters1h
Trump discusses new Iran proposal with national security aides
Y↑
StateDeptIranIntl_En✓ 24h
Trump hints at further action against Iran after military strikes
Likely NO MegaETH market cap predictions 1 article Developing
99% ▼0¢
Y↑
CoinbaseMarkets1h
Coinbase supports MegaETH deposits ahead of April 30 token event
Likely NO Gensyn FDV predictions 1 article Developing
99% ▼0¢
Y↑
CoinbaseMarkets1h
Gensyn AI token debuts on Coinbase, market skeptical of $600M valuation
Likely NO James comey arrest timeline 1 article · 2h ago
100% ▼0¢
Y↑
BBCWorldBBCNewsFox News (homepage)✓ 32h
James Comey indictment prompts arrest speculation amid market certainty
Likely NO Next prime minister of Israel predictions 1 article · 2h ago
6% ▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu out 6% FLAT
N↑
Jerusalem Post2h
Bennett unveils plan to replace Netanyahu with new alliance by June 30
Likely NO Bitcoin price above on may 1 1 article · 3h ago
99.8% ▼0¢
N↑
Reuters3h
Eurozone confidence hits low as Bitcoin market remains steady above $68K
Likely NO Iran leadership change 1 article · 4h ago
3% ▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 1% FLAT
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 0% FLAT
N↑
Middle East Eye4h
Iran security council unifies on war decisions, reinforcing regime stability
Likely NO Crude oil prices by end of june 1 article · 5h ago
1% ▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 1% FLAT
N↑
The Hill5h
Iran proposes reopening Strait of Hormuz to US, excludes nuclear terms
Likely NO Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire extensions 1 article · 5h ago
99.8% ▼0¢
Y↑
Ynetnews5h
Israeli president mediates in Netanyahu trial, potential political exit deal