Trump to unveil coalition details, aims to end Iran conflict by late April

Trump plans to reveal coalition details tomorrow, aiming to end the Iran conflict by late April. The market on countries conducting military action against Iran by April 30 is at 22% YES.

Trump’s statement moved the April 30 military action market from 18% to 22%. Traders are pricing in a catalyst from Trump’s coalition details, with potential military action from the UK or other allies as the likely trigger. The market for action by April 15 sits much lower at 9.2%.

The UK strike market for April 30 holds at 3.6% YES. That low number reflects skepticism about direct UK military involvement even after Trump’s coalition remarks. With 18 days on the clock, traders appear to want concrete action signals before repricing.

Trading volume at $3,089 USDC daily in the April 30 military action market is moderate, meaning a few large trades could move odds meaningfully. The largest recent shift was a 2-point spike, which shows sensitivity to coalition news at this liquidity level.

Trump’s two-week deadline is high-stakes but vague. Traders are treating coalition clarity as the most likely action trigger. A YES share at 22¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 4.5x return. That bet requires coalition activity within 18 days.

Watch Trump’s briefing tomorrow. Confirmation of active coalition roles could drive odds up sharply. Statements from NATO, the UK, or Saudi Arabia would be the specific signals to track.

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