US-Israel coalition and Iran announce two-week ceasefire in Tehran

A two-week ceasefire between the US-Israel coalition and Iran has been announced, halting hostilities in Tehran. The ceasefire by April 15 market is at 100% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.

Market reaction

The April 15 US-Iran ceasefire market, now at 100%, has effectively resolved. Subsequent date markets (April 30 and beyond) have also reached 100% YES, indicating traders expect de-escalation to hold in the short term. The largest single move was a 24-point spike at 10:34 PM as the market priced in the ceasefire news.

The Iranian regime fall market moved in the opposite direction. Odds for the regime collapsing by June 30 dropped to 8.5% YES, down from 12% the day before. Traders appear to read the ceasefire and upcoming talks as signs the regime is stable enough to negotiate, which reduces the near-term probability of governmental collapse.

Why it matters

Combined 24-hour USDC volume across the ceasefire markets hit $5,188,952. The 24-point price surge and the order book depth behind it point to significant capital moving on this news. The ceasefire at 100¢ YES offers no remaining payout opportunity, but it shifts attention to whether the truce holds and what that means for related markets like the regime fall contract.

The ceasefire pauses airstrikes and missile exchanges but does not resolve underlying tensions or address Iran’s nuclear program.

What to watch

The April 10 talks are the next inflection point. Actions by intermediaries like Oman and Qatar, or changes in rhetoric from Trump or IRGC officials, could move sentiment on the regime fall market and any longer-dated ceasefire contracts.

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