Israel announced its preparedness to resume combat despite the ongoing ceasefire. The ceasefire by April 15 market sits at 100% YES, up from 12% just a day ago.
The ceasefire by April 15 market shows full resolution, likely because the combat-readiness announcement wasn’t enough to reverse the momentum of the recent ceasefire agreement. The April 30 and later-dated markets also sit at 100% YES. These markets spiked sharply yesterday, pushing them to certainty.
The April 15 market has $1.39M in daily USDC volume. The largest move was a 24-point spike driven by a few large trades, which suggests the volume may not reflect broad consensus. The April 30 market shows similar trading patterns with daily USDC volume at $1.74M.
Israel’s readiness to resume combat makes the current ceasefire look precarious. The markets price in absolute certainty that the ceasefire holds, but Israel’s posture suggests this could be a temporary reprieve. At 100% YES, a bet against the ceasefire pays nothing, and traders are accepting zero risk premium for continued peace in a volatile region.
Traders should watch statements from CENTCOM and possible Israeli actions in Lebanon. Any military activity or hawkish rhetoric could shift these markets quickly.
