Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth declared the United States has met its military goals against Iran in 38 days. The fragile ceasefire agreed upon on April 7 pushed the “US x Iran ceasefire by April 15” market to 100% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.
The “US forces enter Iran by April 30” market now sits at 99.8% YES, slightly down from its previous peak. The ceasefire agreement and Hegseth’s announcement of achieved objectives signal de-escalation, making ground troop entry less likely. April 15 odds soared after a 24-point spike at 10:34 PM.
The term structure across other dates, including April 30 and beyond, shows unanimous confidence in the ceasefire holding. Each sub-market sits at or near 100% YES, with no spread between short and long-term contracts. Traders expect the ceasefire to hold well past the immediate window.
Volume in the “US x Iran ceasefire” markets hit $5,188,952 in actual USDC traded across all sub-markets in 24 hours. The largest single move was the 24-point surge in the April 15 contract. The “US forces enter Iran” markets show even higher liquidity, with $85,731,088 in 24-hour USDC traded. The cost to move the price 5 points is $5,396,380, pointing to solid institutional presence.
At 99.8¢, a YES share in the “US forces enter Iran by April 30” market offers negligible returns. The ceasefire markets similarly offer no upside at current prices. Any renewed conflict or breakdown in talks would be the catalyst for movement in either direction.
Watch for statements from CENTCOM and potential intermediary actions by Oman or Qatar. A shift in rhetoric or any new military engagement could move these markets quickly.
