President Trump has floated the idea of a joint US-Iran venture to levy tolls in the Strait of Hormuz, and the Polymarket ceasefire contract has responded accordingly: odds for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 are at 100% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.
Market reaction
All sub-markets for the US-Iran ceasefire now sit at or near 100% YES. The April 15 market saw a 24-point spike at 10:34 PM, jumping from 67% to 90% in one swing. The April 30 and May 31 markets followed, driven by heavy trading volume and diplomatic developments.
Combined actual USDC traded across these markets reached $5,188,952 in the last 24 hours. Order book depth is strong, suggesting institutional involvement. The largest single price move was the 24-point spike, consistent with large orders reacting to Trump’s proposal.
Why it matters
Trump’s proposal represents a shift from hostility toward economic cooperation with Iran. The news was sourced from a tier-3 aggregator but tracks with ongoing diplomatic efforts. At 100¢, buying YES shares offers no payout, but if talks break down, the market could reset quickly. The real question is whether this proposal translates into any concrete arrangement or stays rhetorical.
What to watch
The April 10 talks in Islamabad are the next scheduled event. Look for announcements of joint ventures or intermediary activity from Oman or Qatar. Statements from Rubio and Hegseth will signal whether the US military posture is actually changing.
