Vice President Vance addressed a misunderstanding about Lebanon’s inclusion in the Iran ceasefire, while Iran committed to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 market is at 100% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.
Vance’s statement and Iran’s Strait commitment drove a surge across multiple ceasefire timelines. April 30, May 31, and June 30 markets all hit 100% YES. The uniformity across these contracts suggests traders see little chance of renewed hostilities in the near term.
Real USDC volume in the April 15 market alone is $1,385,525 daily. A 24-point spike at 10:34 PM pushed odds from 67% to 90%, part of a broader 24-hour swing. The liquidity depth behind these moves points to institutional-level activity, not a handful of retail trades.
Vance’s clarification and Iran’s partial compliance are being read as diplomatic progress that reduces escalation risk. The source is tier-3, so traders should stay cautious. Buying YES at 100¢ offers negligible upside now, but the shift from brinkmanship to diplomacy is real. The key variable is whether Iran actually reopens the Strait; failure to do so would disrupt these odds.
Watch for operational updates from CENTCOM and any shifts in rhetoric from President Trump. A confirmed reopening of the Strait or additional diplomatic gestures would test whether 100% across all timelines holds.
