White House declares US victory as Iran ceases weapon supply to proxies

The White House announced that Iran can no longer supply weapons to its proxies and declared the ceasefire a US victory. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 15 now sits at 100% YES, up from 12% just 24 hours ago.

The announcement pushed all related ceasefire markets to near-certainty: 100% YES for April 30, 99.9% YES for May 31, and 100% YES for June 30. The April 15 market jumped 24 points at 10:34 PM, with traders treating the ceasefire as locked in through at least mid-April.

On regime stability, odds for the Iranian regime to fall by June 30 dropped to 8.5% YES, down from 12% a day ago. The White House framing the deal as a ceasefire victory implies a strategic pause rather than regime collapse, which pulled trader expectations of immediate upheaval lower.

Ceasefire sub-markets have $5.19M in total USDC traded. The 24-point spike in the April 15 market reflects concentrated buying activity and high conviction. The regime fall market is much thinner at $93,869 daily USDC, consistent with low confidence in near-term regime change.

The White House is positioning the ceasefire as an operational success, but questions about durability persist. Buying YES at a penny in the regime fall market would pay 11.76x if the regime falls by June 30. That bet requires something like IRGC fractures or leadership changes.

Watch for CENTCOM statements on military posture shifts and Israeli actions against Hezbollah, both of which could test the ceasefire’s stability.

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