Bernstein cuts Coinbase target, raises Circle outlook as crypto revenue mix shifts

Bernstein still likes Coinbase. It just likes it a little less than it did before Monday.

In a fresh report ahead of third-quarter earnings, the brokerage kept its Outperform rating on Coinbase (COIN), Robinhood (HOOD) and Circle (CRCL). Under the surface, though, the numbers moved in different directions. Bernstein cut its earnings forecast and price target for Coinbase while raising its revenue estimates for Robinhood and its earnings estimates for Circle.

The shift says less about any one company and more about where crypto money is now being made. According to Bernstein, plain crypto trading is no longer the main event. Prediction markets, derivatives and tokenization are moving up the bill.

Same rating, different math

For Coinbase, the fine print got thinner. Bernstein lowered both its earnings forecast and its price target for the exchange.

Robinhood went the other way. Bernstein raised its revenue estimates for the trading app, and the reasoning is telling. Slower spot trading volumes, the report suggests, are being offset by growth in derivatives and prediction markets.

Robinhood has leaned into that last category through an integration with Kalshi, a regulated prediction market platform. Per the research, Robinhood’s prediction market revenue now surpasses certain lines of its crypto trading business.

Circle also got an upgrade on estimates. Bernstein raised its earnings outlook for the USDC issuer, tying the improved view to Circle’s position in the stablecoin sector and to growth in USDC supply.

Why spot trading is losing the spotlight

The three growth areas Bernstein highlights each offer a different path. Derivatives can keep traders active even when spot prices go sideways. Prediction markets pull in users who may never buy a Bitcoin but have strong opinions about elections or sports outcomes. Tokenization, the process of representing real-world assets like stocks or funds as blockchain tokens, is a longer-term infrastructure play.

The research frames tokenization infrastructure as a long-term growth engine for these companies.

Circle’s quiet advantage

Circle issues USDC, a stablecoin designed to hold its value at one US dollar. That makes Circle’s business more closely linked to how much USDC is in circulation than to how frantically people are buying and selling tokens on a given day. Bernstein points to USDC supply growth as a driver behind the better earnings view.

The research describes Circle as well placed to benefit from rising stablecoin demand and adoption.

What this means for Coinbase, Robinhood and Circle investors

The most immediate implication is for third-quarter earnings season. All three companies are set to report shortly after Bernstein’s note, and the focus will likely be on non-trading revenue rather than raw volume figures.

For Coinbase shareholders, the cut to estimates and price target is a signal to watch the composition of revenue closely. Bernstein kept its Outperform rating, so the firm clearly believes that gap can be closed.

For Robinhood, the raised revenue estimates place a spotlight on prediction markets. That is a relatively new business line, and its rapid rise relative to some crypto trading revenue makes it a key metric. Investors will want to see whether the Kalshi integration keeps scaling or whether early growth levels off.

Circle’s fortunes track stablecoin adoption, which Bernstein views favorably. If USDC supply growth stalls, the improved outlook would face pressure.